Board Member Candidate Questionnaire

Ian Duncan, FSA, MAAA, FCA, FCIA, FIA

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE: Share a personal experience, trait, or characteristic that will help the membership to better understand you and your candidacy.

My actuarial training was the springboard to a broader career, internationally (UK, Canada, South Africa and Latin America) and in the U.S. I pioneered predictive analytics in healthcare in the 1990s and managed care program evaluation in the 2000s. I used those skills to found or co-found five healthcare analytics companies, the last of which was sold in 2023. I am passionate about entrepreneurship and want to foster it more among actuaries. One reason for starting companies was that as a consultant for many years I wanted the opportunity to actually implement my ideas in practice. I like to see projects through to successful completion. Two projects I take credit for during my first board term were chairing the introduction of the SOA logo (which required getting 30,000 actuaries to agree on something) and the introduction of the Predictive Analytics exam. After I sold a prior company I was able to follow a long-held goal and take a position as a professor at the University of California, where I have taught and mentored over 1,000 actuarial students and pursued a research agenda including over 80 peer-reviewed papers and several books and completed a Ph.D.

PROJECT LEADERSHIP / CHANGE MANAGEMENT: Describe a significant project that you led in the workplace or in your volunteer activities. Describe how you made decisions and addressed changes that were proposed, whether changes were made, or were not made, after considering all options. How did you achieve buy-in in the final outcome, and what were the biggest challenges you had to overcome?

When I served on the Board (2012-2015), the SOA decided that it needed a logo—for 65 years the SOA had been known for its seal but had no logo. I was a member of the Marketing Committee for two years (second as Chair) when we were assigned the task of developing and implementing the first logo. The SOA’s public relations consultant developed concepts, including the design ultimately chosen. I liked the current logo because it was reminiscent of the shield in the seal. My first task was to convince other members of the committee to accept this design. The next (surprisingly difficult) task was to agree on a color scheme (I still have six different design boards in my office with different color choices). After much discussion (we are actuaries of course) the committee agreed on a choice. The more difficult challenge in my year as Chair was to convince the membership of the choice. We were helped significantly by SOA staff who assembled focus groups of members to review the choices. Ultimately (with some dissenters—we are actuaries of course) the membership voted in favor. The logo has been very successful and has established the SOA “brand” with members and the public. My take-away from this experience is that it is important, when faced with a committee unable to reach agreement, to make a choice, prepare data and arguments in favor of your choice and continue discussion to convince the fence-sitters.

ACTUARY OF THE FUTURE: What does the future of the actuarial profession look like to you? What strategies should the SOA implement to grow the actuarial profession, especially in light of more competition for analytical skills and data science job opportunities?

The profession will flourish if actuaries seek non-traditional opportunities and new pathways, rather than relying on reserved roles for actuaries in insurance companies and retirement plans. This requires focus on entrepreneurship, innovation and business skills in the exams. I used my actuarial training to pivot 30 years ago into healthcare data analytics and developed software, creating value for my companies and allowing me to sell them. We already recognize that the exams are a disincentive for students (I am on the Pipeline Workgroup). We need to do 2 things: promote the profession more broadly, not just to mathematics majors, and find a way to focus the exams on the necessary core knowledge. It is disappointing that the first thing the public associates with actuaries is the difficulty of the exams. Doctors have equally rigorous training yet are known for helping patients become well. The public is unaware that actuaries are responsible for ensuring their financial security. The current SOA strategy emphasizes international expansion, but this strategy is limited by international tensions and simple economics (few countries can afford American-level charges). The SOA has tried (organizationally) to insert actuaries into other fields without success, but it is actuaries themselves that will create their own opportunities. Clearly young actuaries are entrepreneurial: my students at the university look for guidance to start businesses. At the university we see a migration from actuarial courses to data science, but I believe that this is temporary and (like all bubbles) will end when the supply of data science graduates exceeds demand. We should focus on promoting the value of the profession and modernizing actuarial training and the exams.

INNOVATION / ADAPTION: How has your experience prepared you to lead through challenges such as AI, technological disruption, climate change and generational shifts? How would you guide a knowledge-based workforce, including actuaries, in addressing these emerging issues?

Thirty years ago, I became a management consultant at a time of significant technological change (enterprise systems). Implementing systems in health insurance companies gave me exposure to the potential for automation of routine tasks. At the same time, I became interested in the potential for predictive analytics, which I have used to start three analytics companies that went on to develop software to automate healthcare management processes. I am largely self-taught in predictive analytics and machine learning, emphasizing applying models for automating business applications rather than the models themselves. (In my experience, actuaries prefer to apply their professional skills rather than automate processes.) The term AI covers a very wide range of models including those that I have used for many years, as well as the new “chat” variety. At conferences I see few successful applications beyond automation of basic customer service and repetitive functions. AI is now viewed as both a problem and a solution. I will continue to observe AI and look for opportunities but not fundamentally change my current focus, which is the automation of healthcare risk contracting. Although I am a baby boomer, I teach and mentor the current generation of students, many of whom I hired and managed in my last company. Actuaries with data science training as well as an understanding of risk and economics will always outperform pure data scientists (in my experience). I find that this generation is excited to have jobs that allow them to apply their actuarial training, particularly their machine learning skills, while at the same time learning client and project management.