SOA Research Institute 19th Annual Emerging Risk Survey

Background and Purpose

The SOA Research Institute would like to continue in its annual cycle of publishing results from the 19th Survey of Emerging Risks through releasing a survey, compiling results and trends, and broadening out results to new graphics and report formats. This annual survey compiles trends about risks that extend longer than the time horizon used for standard industry planning cycles. This analysis provides helpful ways to understand how actuaries and risk managers disconnect from day-to-day operations and take a long-term view of risk and to see how these views have evolved over time.

In the recent past, risk manager concerns in the current survey focus on climate, disruptive technology, and wars, continuing previous years’ trends. Artificial Intelligence (AI) risks were also surveyed, with concern mainly on cybersecurity and manipulation, and many departments within companies being involved in managing components of these AI risks. The survey also will bring in and compile risk manager economic outlooks for 2026.

Research Objective

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute is seeking researchers to assist in gathering the data from industry through the survey, identify ongoing trends from the current and past years of the survey, produce survey results in a report and in graphical format for easy digestion by trade industry and media, and work with the SOA in publicizing the results to broad audiences. The most recent version of the survey can be found here at: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2025/18th-survey-emerging-risks/

Emphasis for this cycle of the survey will be to collect data during November to December 2025, with turnaround of the survey and results in both a report and infographics by the end of February 2026. Additional emphasis will be placed on working collaboratively with the SOA on providing infographics and analyses that can be used to communicate results out to SOA members, trade industry, and broader media audiences.

Proposal Requirements

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

1. Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
2. An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
3. A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources to be used.
4. Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
   As a guide for developing project budgets, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix).
   Please note that as a policy, the SOA Research Institute generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.
5. A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The SOA is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
6. Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.

Selection Process

The SOA will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The POG is responsible for recommending to the Section Research Committee the proposal to be funded, if any. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the Section Research Committee will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to research@soa.org with the subject line Emerging Risk Survey.

Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by September 19, 2025 to research@soa.org with the subject line Emerging Risk Survey.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to research@soa.org with the subject line Emerging Risk Survey; proposals must be received no later than September 26, 2025. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by October 10, 2025.

Conditions

The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the [Society of Actuaries/sponsoring entity] in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.

The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.

Conflict of Interest

You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries or the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Appendix

The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.

All Contracted Projects

This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years. The 33rd – 66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 – $50,000.

Literature Reviews

This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review. The 33rd – 66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 – $20,000.

Surveys

This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component. The 33rd–66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 – $55,000.