18th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks

January 2025

Authors

David Schraub, FSA, CERA, MAAA, AQ
David Schraub Actuarial Consultancy

Max J. Rudolph, FSA, CERA, CFA, MAAA
Rudolph Financial Consulting, LLC

Executive Summary

The 18th Survey of Emerging Risks compiles trends about risks that extend longer than the time horizon used for standard industry planning cycles. This analysis provides helpful ways to understand how actuaries and risk managers disconnect from day-to-day operations and take a long-term view of risk and to see how these views have evolved over time.

Risk manager concerns in the current survey focus on climate, disruptive technology, and wars, continuing previous years’ trends. Artificial Intelligence (AI) risks were also surveyed, with concern mainly on cybersecurity and manipulation, and many departments within companies being involved in managing components of these AI risks. In terms of broad categories, it was noteworthy through the survey that geopolitical risks are still of a major concern to respondents in total, with technological risks trending up and economic risks receding. The survey indicates optimism for the economic outlook for 2025.

To contextualize this report, the reader should note that surveys were tied to their specific time and environment, with recency bias (a belief that recent events are more likely to reoccur) always present. The survey response period was between November 7 and 25, 2024, which fell just after the 2024 fall U.S. elections, sending Donald Trump to the presidency and the Republican party to lead U.S. Congress. The timing of the survey was such that the COVID-19 pandemic was clearly in the rear-view mirror, the Hamas-Israeli hostilities had extended into Lebanon, the Russia-Ukraine war continued, and as the COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan was taking place. Inflation was continuing its downward trends, and the Federal Reserve had been cautiously lowering its target interest rate in 2024. Hurricanes Milton and Helene had battered the U.S. Atlantic coast in succession, highlighting the climate change impact on property insurance in the public discourse. The survey period was prior to the regime change in Syria and the California wildfires.

Reports

18th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks – Key Findings

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Previous Emerging Risks Surveys