Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Project–Annuity Lapse Modeling


Research Projects – Risk Management

The Society of Actuaries' (SOA) Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Group was formed to develop better estimates of policyholder behavior in extreme situations (a.k.a. the tail of the distribution). To further its mission, the group commissioned two research papers examining the modeling of annuity lapse rates under extreme conditions. Funding for the papers was provided by the SOA's Committee on Finance Research.

The resulting papers provide different perspectives on how these rates may be modeled. Changki Kim's paper applies a Logit model to Korean and U.S. experience. Sam Cox and Yijia Lin employ a different approach that relies on a Tobit model in its analysis of annuity lapse rates. Cox and Lin also suggest that a Count model may be more appropriate if more expanded lapse data were available.


Report to the Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Subgroups Project

Annuity Lapse Rate Modeling: Tobit or Logit by Dr. Sam Cox and Yijia Lin

Thank You

The Group wishes to thank the following members of Project Oversight Group:

  • Robert Lalonde, Chair
  • Pete Bondy
  • Sam Cox
  • Dale Hagstrom
  • Stephen Hodges
  • James Reiskytl
  • Randy Tillis
  • Steven Siegel, SOA Research Actuary
  • Jeanne Nallon, SOA Research Assistant

Special thanks to Robert Lalonde for the extensive editing and helpful suggestions on the papers.

Questions Or Comments?

If you have comments or questions, please send an email to research@soa.org.