Cost of the Newly Insured Under the Affordable Care Act

Research Projects in Health

The Society of Actuaries is pleased to make available material examining the cost of the newly insured under the Affordable Care Act. The main objective of this research is to estimate the morbidity change due to new participants in the individual market and the impact that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will have on filling the uninsured gap. The material was authored by Randy Haught and John Ahrens.

Cost of the Newly Insured Under the Affordable Care Act

Research sponsored by the Society of Actuaries (SOA) predicts ACA-driven changes in individual market composition of the individual health care market could drive up underlying claims costs by an average of 32 percent nationally by 2017. The research also predicts high variability among states, with as many as 43 states experiencing a double-digit claims cost increase.

View the Report

The SOA would like to thank the following Project Oversight Group members:

Kenny Kan, Chair
Karen Bender
Bela Gorman
Karl Madrecki
Ted Prospect
Adam Rudin
Geoff Sandler
Steele Stewart
Sara Teppema
Kristi Bohn, SOA Health Staff Fellow
Barbara Scott, SOA Research Administrator
Steven Siegel, SOA Research Actuary

Further, the SOA would like to thank the following who contributed to this research:
Dan Bailey
Sarah Mayer
Dave Tuomala

Disclaimer for Material
The model, accompanying documentation, and methodologies contained herein do not represent an official position, statement, or endorsement on behalf of the Society of Actuaries or its members, nor should the material be construed to do so. This work is the product of a research effort commissioned by the Society of Actuaries to add to the library of resource tools and further knowledge in that area. The model is neither intended to preclude the use of other methodologies for estimation, nor provide a statement or position on the use, application, or preferability of other methodologies as compared to the methodology described herein.

Disclaimer for Software Posted on Web site
Important: The software posted on this site is the property of the Society of Actuaries ("SOA") and is protected under U.S. and international copyright laws. The Software has been developed for the benefit of actuaries FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY, although others may find it useful. SOA makes the Software available to individual users for their personal use on a non–exclusive basis. No commercial use, reproduction or distribution is permitted whatsoever.