Applying Fuzzy Logic to Risk Assessment and Decision-Making

Research Projects in Risk Management

The Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries' Joint Risk Management Section is pleased to make available a research report exploring areas where fuzzy logic models may be applied to improve risk assessment and risk decision-making. The report was authored by Kailan Shang and Zakir Hossen.


Applying Fuzzy Logic to Risk Assessment and Decision-Making
Fuzzy Logic Example Tool

*There is also an Excel tool that includes examples of some simple fuzzy logic modeling.


If you have any questions or comments regarding the report, please contact Steve Siegel, Research Actuary at

Thank You

The Joint Risk Management Section would like to thank the following individuals for their input and review:

  • Dan Bailey
  • Mark Bergstrom
  • Christopher Coulter
  • Casey Malone
  • Mary Neumann
  • Joshua Parker
  • Jason Sears
  • Fred Tavan
  • Andrei Titioura
  • Zhiwei Zhu
  • Steve Siegel, Research Actuary
  • Barbara Scott, Research Administrator

This report, its accompanying models, software tools and other associated documentation do not represent an official position, statement, or endorsement of the Society of Actuaries (SOA). The software has been developed for the benefit of actuaries FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY, although others may find it useful. The SOA and the authors make no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, regarding the software as to quality, accuracy, reliability, suitability or otherwise, and DISCLAIM ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE. SOA and the authors make no representation or warranty of non-infringement of proprietary rights of others with respect to the software. Further, the SOA and the authors make no warranty that the software is free from errors, defects, worms, viruses or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties. The user assumes all risks relating to the use, outputs, analyses, results and performance of the software, regardless of whether the software is used alone or with other software. NEITHER THE SOA NOR THE AUTHORS SHALL BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ARISING FROM THE USE OF, RELIANCE ON, OR THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SOFTWARE OR ITS ACCOMPANYING INSTRUCTIONS OR DOCUMENTATION. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE SOA OR THE AUTHORS BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS) EVEN IF APPRISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.