Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends Update for 2021–2030+

Health care financing is undergoing a stress test in real time. Extreme volatility makes unlikely events more likely to happen. The disruption is so severe that it seems useless to make a projection of rates next year, or even for the year after. The Getzen Model is based on 30+ years of observation showing that economic factors, not disease incidence, are responsible for most of the disruption and variance in aggregate medical spending trends.

Materials:

Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends Update for 2021–2030+

SOA Long-Term Health Care Cost Trends Model v2021

Annual Percentage Change is US Employment from 2000 – 2020

Additional Reference Materials

Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends Technical Manual

The Growth of Health Spending in the USA: 1776 to 2026

Accuracy of Long-Range Actuarial Projections of Health Care Cost

Questions or Comments?

If you have comments or questions, please send an email to  research@soa.org.