Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends Update for 2021–2030+

Health care financing is undergoing a stress test in real time. Extreme volatility makes unlikely events more likely to happen. The disruption is so severe that it seems useless to make a projection of rates next year, or even for the year after. The Getzen Model is based on 30+ years of observation showing that economic factors, not disease incidence, are responsible for most of the disruption and variance in aggregate medical spending trends.