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Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality by Socioeconomic Factors


Alexandre Boumezoued
Jean-Baptiste Coulomb
Al Klein, FSA, MAAA
Damien Louvet
Eve Elisabeth Titon


Sponsored by the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool, this study enhances existing research  on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality. Authored by a Milliman team led by Alexandre Boumezoued, the report provides a toolkit for actuaries and others to model and forecast mortality by cause and socioeconomic factors.


Report: Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality by Socioeconomic Factors

Tool: Causes of Death Forecasting Tool

Example: Causes of Death Forecasting – Drug

Example: Causes of Death Forecasting – Neoplasms

User Guide: Causes of Death Forecasting Tool User Guide


Project Oversight Group Members: 

Jim Filmore, Chairperson, FSA, MAAA

Mary Pat Campbell, FSA, MAAA

Henry Egesi, FSA

Sophie (Lemeng) Feng, ASA, ACIA, CERA

Jean-Marc Fix, FSA, MAAA

Blake Hill, FSA, FCIA

Jason McKinley, FSA

Larry Stern, FSA, MAAA

Mark Walker, FSA, MAAA

Daniel Zamarripa, MD

At the Society of Actuaries: 

R. Dale Hall, FSA, CERA, MAAA, Managing Director of Research

Jan Schuh, Senior Research Administrator

Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA, Senior Practice Research Actuary

Disclaimer for Software

Important: This Excel forecasting model ("Software") is the property of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and is protected under U.S. and international copyright laws.

The Software has been developed for the benefit of actuaries FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY, although others may find it useful. SOA and the authors make the Software available to individual users for their personal use on a non–exclusive basis. No commercial use, reproduction or distribution is permitted whatsoever.

SOA and the authors make no warranty, guarantee, or representation, either expressed or implied, regarding the Software, including its quality, accuracy, reliability, or suitability, and HEREBY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY REGARDING THE SOFTWARE'S MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE. SOA and the authors make no warranty that the Software is free from errors, defects, worms, viruses or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties. In no event shall SOA or the authors be liable for any damages (including any lost profits, lost savings, or direct, indirect, incidental, consequential or other damages) in connection with or resulting from the use, misuse, reliance on, or performance of any aspect of the Software including any instructions or documentation accompanying the Software. SOA and the authors make no representation or warranty of non–infringement of proprietary rights of others with respect to the Software. The entire risk as to the uses, outputs, analyses, results and performance of the Software is assumed by the user. This Disclaimer applies regardless of whether the Software is used alone or with other software.

The models, any accompanying documentation, and methodologies contained herein do not represent an official position, statement, or endorsement on behalf of the Society of Actuaries or its members, nor should the material be construed to do so. It is the product of a research effort commissioned by the Society of Actuaries. The model is neither intended to preclude the use of other methodologies for any purpose nor provide a statement or position on the use, application, or preferability of other methodologies as compared to the methodology described herein.

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