Resurrecting the White Swan Mindset, How much more can be forecast

Authors

Dr. Guntram Werther, Ph.D., Professor, Integrative Business Applications Group – MSCM, The Fox School of Business, Temple University

Max J. Rudolph, FSA, CFA, CERA, MAAA, Principal, Rudolph Financial Consulting, LLC

Description

The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Report

Resurrecting the White Swan Mindset, How much more can be forecast

Podcast

Research Insights - Resurrecting the White Swan Mindset, How much more can be forecast

Acknowledgments:

Project Oversight Group members:

Matthew Clark, FSA, MAAA, CERA
Thomas Herget
Dave Ingram, FSA, MAAA, CERA

At the Society of Actuaries:

Jan Schuh, SOA Senior Research Administrator
David Schraub, FSA, MAAA, CERA, AQ Senior Practice Research Actuary
Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA, SOA Senior Practice Research Actuary

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