Quantifying Long Term Effects of COVID-19 on Health Care Costs


Achilles Natsis, FSA, MAAA
Health Research Actuary
Society of Actuaries Research Institute


Through the sponsorship of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, The Society of Actuaries partnered with Wakely to use their health care data to study the effects of COVID-19 on overall health care claims for individuals with a COVID-19 diagnosis.

The conclusion of the study is that individuals with COVID-19 claims had significant increases in health care costs leading up to their months of diagnosis, as well as in the months following their diagnosis. These effects were more pronounced for individuals who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 as well as for individuals with prior co-morbidities. Finally, the overall health care costs of these members plateaued at significantly higher levels than their pre-COVID baselines. In fact, all the main membership cohorts experienced claim levels that were at least 20% higher than their pre-COVID starting points.


Quantifying Long Term Effects of COVID-19 on Health Care Costs


The authors’ deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the volunteers who generously shared their wisdom, insights, advice, guidance, and arm’s-length review of this study prior to publication. Any opinions expressed may not reflect their opinions nor those of their employers. Any errors belong to the authors alone.

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

Data Contributors:

Project Oversight Group members:
Joan Barrett, FSA, MAAA
Michael Cohen, PhD
Chia Chin, ASA, MAAA
Katherine Hempstead
Doug Norris, FSA, MAAA
Margie Rosenberg, FSA, MAAA
Sudha Shenoy, FSA, MAAA

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