Modeling the Impact of the Great Unwinding on State Medicaid Programs

October 2023

Authors

Colby Schaeffer, ASA, MAAA
Founding Partner
Incline Actuarial Group

Jerry Rea, ASA, MAAA
Founding Partner
Incline Actuarial Group

Matthew Trott
Managing Actuary
Incline Actuarial Group

Manlika Tuininga
Assistant Actuary
Incline Actuarial Group

Laura Baldwin, Ph.D.
Actuarial Analyst
Incline Actuarial Group

Description

The intention of this report is to project expected changes in enrollment and acuity in Medicaid budgets and capitation rate development. This report provides actuaries and other finance professionals with an example of running the Medicaid Unwinding model with results at the national level on projected changes in both acuity and enrollment for Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program. Information is critically important at the time of this writing as states recently began to terminate Medicaid and CHIP beneficiaries due to ineligibility for the first time in over three years.

Materials

Modeling the Impact of the Great Unwinding on State Medicaid Programs

Modeling the Impact of the Great Unwinding on State Medicaid Programs – User Guide 

Modeling the Impact of the Great Unwinding on State Medicaid Programs – Modeling Tool

Thank You

The authors’ deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the volunteers who generously shared their wisdom, insights, advice, guidance, and arm’s-length review of this study prior to publication. Any opinions expressed may not reflect their opinions or those of their employers. Any errors belong to the authors alone.

Project Oversight Group members:
Robert Damler, FSA, MAAA (POG Chair)
Yemi Derebe, ASA, MAAA, CERA
Greg Fann, FSA, MAAA, FCA
Elisa Goodwin, FSA, MAAA
Marilyn McGaffin, ASA, MAAA
Bonnie Punch, ASA, MAAA
Ethel Tan, ASA, MAAA
Lydia Tolman, FSA, MAAA
Steven Wander, FSA, MAAA, FCA
David Wierz, MA
Xuemin Zhang, ASA
Sean Zhao, FSA, MAAA, CERA

Society of Actuaries Research Team:
Achilles Natsis, FSA, MAAA, FLMI, Health Research Actuary
Erika Shulty, Research Administrator

Questions or Comments?

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