Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic

December 2024

Authors

Eugenio Paglino, PhD
University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center

Rafeya V. Raquib, MS
Boston University, School of Public Health

Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, PhD
University of Minnesota, Minnesota Population Center

Andrew C. Stokes, PhD
Boston University, School of Public Health

Description

This report presents initial findings from a project investigating the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 in the post-acute phase of the pandemic. These findings focused on cause-specific excess mortality in the first three pandemic years, March 2020 to February 2023. In addition, the authors investigated how different mechanisms contributed and could continue to affect mortality rates following the acute pandemic period. The study is based on weekly mortality data by age and cause of death from 2015 to 2023 obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, combined with population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Weekly excess deaths by age and cause comparing observed deaths to deaths expected based on pre-pandemic trends were computed. Then the temporal correlation between weekly COVID-19 and excess deaths from other causes at various lags were assessed. The authors developed a theoretical framework to interpret the results of this analysis and understand potential underlying factors responsible for excess mortality.

Materials

Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Acknowledgments

The authors’ deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the volunteers who generously shared their wisdom, insights, advice, guidance, and arm’s-length review of this study prior to publication. Any opinions expressed may not reflect their opinions nor those of their employers. Any errors belong to the authors alone.

Project Oversight Group members:
Jean-Marc Fix, Chair, FSA, MAAA
Andrea Melink, FSA
Rebecca Reppert, FSA, MAAA, CERA
Benjamin Blakeslee, FSA, MAAA
Carolyn Covington, FSA, MAAA, CERA
David Stoddard, FSA, MAAA
Joel Jones
Jonathan Crawford, ACIA
Marianne Purushotham, FSA, MAAA
Mark Evans, FSA, MAAA
Qi Yao, FSA, FCIA
Samuel Behrend, FSA, MAAA
Yutaro Kameda, FSA

At the Society of Actuaries Research Institute:
Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA, Senior Practice Research Actuary
Barbara Scott, Senior Research Administrator

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