Description: This paper develops an option pricing model that takes cost of capital concepts as its foundation rather than dynamic replication. The resulting model, called the 'C' measure in this paper, is related to the family of Affine Jump Diffusion models that are well known in the finance literature, so it is fairly easy to understand and implement. We argue that this is a reasonable model to use for estimating equity implied volatilities that are beyond the five- to 10-year horizon that can typically be observed in today‘s capital markets. The paper concludes with a short discussion of how to grade from observable market data to the 'C' measure.

Description: This paper demonstrates the calculation of the moments of the distribution of aggregate life insurance claims from seriatim inforce data, assuming that each record represents an independent Bernoulli trial with its own known probability of a claim, q. Continuous distributions matching the first three or four moments are identified.

Description: This paper presents the modeling of mortality risk from exposure to a potential future extreme event such as a natural disaster and a terrorist attack, and its impact on life insurance. With this new model, quantities associated with the total force of mortality such as survival function are derived and the impact of mortality risk on life insurance is examined.

Description: Guaranteed Annuity Options GAOs are options available to holders of certain pension policies. This paper studies GAOs using two models for the interest rate the Vasicek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models. An actuarial approach is used to value the GAOs and compared with the value of a replicating portfolio.

Description: This paper takes the position that a truly transparent pension accounting expense could be developed to produce superior reporting that reflects experience as it occurs. Contributions could also be based on some asset and liability information about the pension plan, but with flexibility to allow for more controllable and stable contributions. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: The U.K. Pension Protection Fund (PPF) was established in April 2005 to protect the pensions of members of U.K. private sector defined benefit pension schemes that have insufficient assets and whose corporate sponsor fails. The Fund takes over the pension scheme assets and assumes responsibility for the payment of compensation to the former members of the scheme. The PPF is funded by a levy on the population of eligible schemes. To improve its ERM framework, the PPF has undertaken a reverse stress testing exercise. This analysis provided the organization with new insights into its risk profile, the scenarios leading to the PPF’s potential “failure,” and interactions between these scenarios. This paper discusses the principles and objectives of reverse stress testing in the special case of the PPF and then illustrates the application of complex system science techniques for the purpose of reverse stress testing.

Description: This paper, originally published in 1969 in Transactions of Society of Actuaries Vol. 21, presents an analysis of the basic actuarial theory for life insurance policies with fixed premiums and variable benefits reflecting the investment performance of a separate account, where in its basic form, the policyholder bears the entire investment risk. The paper discusses various regulatory and other changes that would be needed or desirable, as well as variation in design such as minimum guarantees. Significant discussion is included, with over twenty individuals contributing in addition to the authors. The introduction to the Monograph notes that while not the first paper on this topic, it “clearly established the framework for subsequent developments of variable products.”

Description: Abstract: The U.K. Pension Protection Fund (PPF) was established in April 2005 to protect the pensions of members of U.K. private sector defined benefit pension schemes that have insufficient assets and whose corporate sponsor fails. The Fund takes over the pension scheme assets and assumes responsibility for the payment of compensation to the former members of the scheme. The PPF is funded by a levy on the population of eligible schemes. To improve its ERM framework, the PPF has undertaken a reverse stress testing exercise. This analysis provided the organization with new insights into its risk profile, the scenarios leading to the PPF’s potential “failure,” and interactions between these scenarios. This paper discusses the principles and objectives of reverse stress testing in the special case of the PPF and then illustrates the application of complex system science techniques for the purpose of reverse stress testing.

Description: This paper proposes guiding principles for a simpler, more effective pension funding system that would better serve plan sponsors, their participants, the regulating agencies, and the general public. The objective of the new system would be to have plan assets funded at termination liability over a reasonable period of time. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: In this paper, we illustrate how to value American-style options using the Least-Squares Monte Carlo LSM approach proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz 2001 and investigate whether there exists an optimal regression complexity in the LSM framework for options pricing. In particular, we use the smoothing spline in the regression step, which allows us to control the regression complexity on a continuous scale with just one tuning parameter. Numerical results on American put options indicate that we need to use more than a linear regression, but as the regression becomes more complex, the accuracy of the LSM method quickly deteriorates. From 39th Actuarial Research Conference.