Description: These essays focus on unknown known where we have data but the future looks different from the past.

Description: This is one of eight essays from the collection: 2020 Living to 100 Essays.

Description: Various ingredients contributed to the current financial crisis, and we can learn many lessons from the crisis. Yet rather than myopically focus on the particular minutiae of the current circumstances, we ought to pay special attention to those central issues that underpin the current crisis, past crises and future crises. Focus is on risk adjusting reported profits.

Description: The upside of the downturn is that these powerful, influential, connected and important, yet incompetent people can be removed from their positions. To quote a great insight of Ayn Rand: “There is no substitute for competence.”

Description: Complex models can provide a false sense of security, hiding the evidence that the entire range of indications may hinge on one or two key assumptions. Use data-driven assumptions, making sure the time series includes stressed environments when possible. If a model of underwriting risk indicates that the probability of accident year combined ratios experienced from 1998 to 2000 is remote, it is not a realistic model

Description: This collection of articles, essays and research reports look at the impacts of excessive heat on mortality, morbidity, property damage, and other costs, and the applications to actuarial practice and quantification of risks resulting from excessive heat.

Description: This essay examines the root causes of the 2008 global financial crisis precipitated by the bursting of the housing bubble. The author suggests that if fraud is not addressed, future crises, perhaps even worse, will occur.

Description: Family structures have expanded in recent decades and so have some beneficiary forms in insurance, banking and investment accounts. This essay includes suggestions for further expansion of those little-discussed but very important forms.

Description: This is a collection of essays from the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, focusing on the potential impact of AI on human longevity and its consequences for modeling future survival/mortality. It includes various essays discussing AI's role in mortality modeling, life expectancy, and implications for actuarial methods.

Description: In light of the increased frequency of the Black Swan stock market events, how should individuals and couples plan for retirement and try to manage the risks involved once retired? Specifically, how much of their retirement assets should they invest in risky rather than less risky assets?