Description: This paper presents a model for analyzing the impact of underwriting cycles on an insurer’s surplus. The model allows the insurer to vary its security loading in response to the cycles, with a strategy parameter that indicates the extent to which the insurer follows the loading which prevails in the market. The insurer’s claim rate is also allowed to vary to reflect exposure changes that result from the insurer’s strategy. The paper analyzes ruin probabilities using both simulation and a Lundberg-type upper bound which is developed in the paper. It finds that the latter is suitable and convenient for comparing ruin probabilities under the different insurer strategies.

Description: Automobile insurers classify the risks that they underwrite in order to subdivide the portfolio into classes of risks with similar profiles. While some insurers may have sufficient historical data, several others may not have significant volume of experience data in order to produce reliable claims predictions to help enhance their risk classification systems. A database containing a pooled experience of several insurers thereby helps to produce a more fair, reliable, and equitable premium structure for all risks concerned. This paper uses multilevel models to analyze the data on claim counts provided by the General Insurance Association of Singapore, an organization consisting of most of the general insurers in Singapore. The multilevel nature of the data is due to the following: a certain vehicle is observed over a period of years and is insured by a particular insurance company under a certain 'fleet' policy. The authors show how intercompany data lead to a priori premiums and a posteriori corrections to these initial premiums. Specific focus is made in understanding the intercompany effects using various count distribution models [Poisson, negative binomial, zero–inflated and hurdle Poisson]. The performance of these various models is compared the authors also investigate how to use the historical claims of a company, fleet and/or vehicle in order to correct for the premium initially set.

Description: Premium computation in a Bayesian context requires the use of a prior distribution [structure function] that the risk parameter follows in the heterogeneous portfolio. This paper contributes to the analysis of credibility theory by identifying the unique relationship between the prior distribution and credibility formula. The latter corresponds to a suggestive form of expressing the premium to be charged to a policyholder as a weighted sum of the sample mean and collective premium. Results for net premium principle and Poisson and negative binomial likelihood functions are shown.

Description: Recent articles addressed the subject of fuzzy regression [FR] and the term structure of interest rates [TSIR]. Their approach relied on possibilistic regression. Although possibilistic regression has been used in many applications, it has a number of limitations, not the least of which is its nebulous relation to the least-squares concept. As an alternative to possibilistic regression, this paper uses fuzzy least square regression to investigate the TSIR.

Description: To penetrate the market of those who today are concerned about future long-term care needs, LTCI providers will need to combine strategies for financial sustainability with the consumer- driven product design focus of the early to mid-1990s.

Description: Explains the methods for determining rates based on experience, such as mortality and claim utilization rates.

Description: An experience study of individual payout annuities covering calendar years 2009 through 2013

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Committee on Life Insurance Company Expenses CLICE) has developed and conducted inter-company expense experience studies annually since 2001. This report documents the results of the Committee’s fourth expense study – the 2004 SOA Individual Life and Annuity Expense Study.

Description: This document requests intents to participate and provides data submission instructions for the 2008 to 2013 Canadian Segregated Fund Policyholder Behavior Experience Study.

Description: Series of infographic to help individuals understand how life expectancy and the decisions they make impact their plans for a happy, healthy and well-funded retirement.