Description: How does mortality experience impact earnings under the new GAAP financial framework? This article discusses how to isolate key components from financial models related to decrements, as well as how to handle the changes in the financial reporting landscape including: the aggregation of insurance policies into cohorts, dynamic reserving, and the limitations imposed by caps and floors. Looking at the components of earnings, such as the present value of benefits, expenses, and premiums, and how these elements interact is critical to form a comprehensive earnings story.

Description: There will be inflection points in the value of an instrument when interest rates change. These inflection points could materially impact the approximation of value change using ALM metrics. In this part of the seven-part series, I will highlight: • How to identify the inflection points; • the range of rate changes where ALM metrics may be relied upon i.e., the “validity” range, outside of which recalculation of the ALM metrics is required and the potential that one needs to rebalance the portfolio; • a technique to improve on the approximation of value change beyond the validity range; and • a technique to convert non-linear change on the yield curve to be used with duration and convexity.

Description: Presents a step-by-step methodology for calculating confidence intervals for IBNR estimates derived using the Averaqe PMPM method. It is a companion article to the January 2023 Health Watch article presenting the Average PMPM method for generating point estimates of IBNR with zero claims runout.

Description: This article provides an overview of activities that should be considered by an actuary when validating a predictive model. It describes several components to consider when validating a predictive model and provides an examination of various methodologies that can be implemented in the validation process.

Description: This is the second part of a 2 part series on Real options analysis (ROA). This article looks into the limitations of using financial option theory when doing real options analysis with projects that are long-dated and uncertain, such as: 1. First-degree homogeneity, 2. Uncertainty must derive from Brownian motion, and 3. Risk neutrality.

Description: How might retirement income strategies be designed, and their suitability assessed, when retirees may differ substantially in their objectives, preferences and personal circumstances? This webcast provides a wide-ranging overview of the key elements involved in formulating retirement strategies, drawing on the “Primer on Retirement Income Strategy Design and Evaluation” that was recently released by the SOA. It will cover three types of income objective – income floor, income target and income optimization – and how they imply different retirement strategies along with a different set of metrics to evaluate outcomes. It will also touch on: key member attributes to account for; the nature of income risk; approaches to investing and drawing down on available assets to generate income; and how stochastic modelling can support the analysis. This webcast should deliver something of interest for all attendees, regardless of prior familiarity with strategies for retirement.

Description: Learn about the industrial practice for constructing the mortality table from 0 to 1 through journeys in Hong Kong and Singapore, including key takeaways. Hear speakers share their biggest challenges during their process, how they resolved them, and discover the most common technical issues faced in conducting the mortality tables.

Description: Cluster modeling is emerging as a powerful technique to manage cloud costs and run time. It also enables quick responses to "what if" scenarios, and aids in attributing results between reporting cycles. In this webcast, we provide insight into cluster modeling, present case studies that focus on various key performance indicators and discuss the benefits and challenges to cluster modeling from an insurer’s perspective. We also discuss the considerations associated with moving from an on-prem based computing solution to a cloud-based approach.

Description: The Society of Actuaries (“SOA”) Research Institute is the research arm of the SOA, providing objective, data-driven research that brings together tried and true practices and future-focused approaches to address societal challenges and business needs. The Institute provides trusted knowledge, extensive experience and new technologies to help effectively identify, predict and manage risks.