Description: The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee issued a call for essays to explore the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to mortality and longevity. The objective was to gather a variety of perspectives and experiences on the use of AI in mortality modeling, forecasting and prediction to promote discussion and future research around this topic. The collection includes six essays that were accepted for publication from all submissions. Two essays were chosen for prizes based on their creativity, originality, and likelihood of further thought on the subject matter.

Description: This paper's objectives are to reduce the variation of life expectancy due to changes in the closing out method and give more homogeneous old age mortality surface for the Algerian population. The paper will also provide readers with a general methodology to extend mortality to old ages for the Algerian population starting from adult mortality data.

Description: Mandatory implementation of life principle-based reserves (PBR) is just around the corner, and there is no shortage of work to do, as most products have yet to be moved to PBR. Oliver Wyman recently completed its 2019 PBR survey, with more than 40 participants covering 85 percent of the individual life market, including 23 of the top 25 life writers and five reinsurers. This article will expand on the key survey findings including implementation status and model simplifications.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that considers the identification problem for age-period-cohort models for a class of non-trapezoidal index sets.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to understand characteristics of a household that drive life insurance demand with more sophisticated analytical techniques. The analysis is based on the Survey of Consumer Finances data, a probability sample of the U.S. population. Household demand of two types of insurance, term life insurance and whole life insurance, is examined jointly. We model both the frequency and the severity of demand for insurance building on the work of Lin and Grace 2007 by using covariates that they developed.

Description: This presentation compares continuous-time multi-factor affine cohort mortality models and presents estimation results for an affine multi-factor, multi-cohort mortality model.

Description: Announcement of an upcoming 2003 Stochastic Modeling Symposium.

Description: This article discusses how complex models can provide a false sense of security, hiding the evidence that the entire range of indications may hinge on one or two key assumptions.

Description: Complex models can provide a false sense of security, hiding the evidence that the entire range of indications may hinge on one or two key assumptions. Use data-driven assumptions, making sure the time series includes stressed environments when possible. If a model of underwriting risk indicates that the probability of accident year combined ratios experienced from 1998 to 2000 is remote, it is not a realistic model

Description: At the conclusion of this session attendees will be familiar with the status of the NAIC's GOES project and have a better understanding of the scenario sets under consideration and how they can be tested to assess the potential impact to principle-based reserve and capital levels.