Description: Overview of regularization and least angle regression approaches.

Description: The well-known examples of predictive modeling “successes” are numerous. Perhaps less widely recognized is the myriad of ways in which a predictive model can fail to perform as expected, often due to misconceptions or misrepresentations on the part of the analyst. This article, which is intended for a general actuarial audience, focuses on three such pitfalls. By understanding these three common pitfalls, readers may guard against them within their own work, teams, and organizations.

Description: In this article, we are going to discuss the AR model by making connections to time-dependent ordinary differential equations.

Description: Summary of what the section has accomplished over the past year.

Description: Contrary to what you might infer from the article title, the author provides counterpoint from some data science skeptics and suggests Big Data sometimes leads to sloppy analysis.

Description: Editorial for the December 2019 print edition of Predictive Analytics & Futurism newsletter describing the large number of informational resources available to PAF Section members.

Description: There is a growing amount of “off-balance sheet” talent in the US and Global workforce. This spans from consultants and contractors, to gig workers and the crowd (both curated crowd and open crowd). One such example is Uber and Lyft workers. Insurance companies and the Actuarial profession have started to experiment with platforms such as Kaggle and this will continue to grow and evolve. This article explores these new sources of talent for companies, the implications to the actuarial function, benefits and challenges of the evolving workforce.

Description: Ways of closing the mortality protection gap, by leveraging some of the new technology, data and analytics to reduce the friction in the buying process.

Description: The article explores the possibility of using the emerging technology for life insurers to build a monitor system for better risk and profitability management.

Description: SOA predictive analytics certificate program provides strong theoretical background and practical, hands-on experience that can be applied to decision making