Description: This report is targeted to actuaries that are interested in identifying the adverse human health outcomes resulting from anthropogenic climate change. This is accomplished by providing a detailed framework to evaluate the impact of extreme heat on human health and identify the role that anthropogenic climate change has on extreme heat events. Although this document is designed around extreme heat, the concepts can be expanded to other climate-related events. As the primary focus of actuarial research is to promote human health and minimize the preventable economic burden, this document also provides recommendations to mitigate against excess heat related illness (HRI) due to extreme heat.

Description: A divisive confrontation over health care pricing is almost inevitable over the next few years. What will ultimately happen is a political decision, not an actuarial one—but it will have major consequences for the trend in health care costs and the divergence between public and private insurance premiums.

Description: This Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key features of the pandemic and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work.

Description: This report summarizes thoughts and questions about the impact of COVID-19 on working in retirement, phased retirement and how the definition and timing of retirement may change. It provides a synthesis of the expert input mentioned above and offers background on related research results. It also describes other issues for further consideration. T

Description: This report provides highlights of a weekly survey of practices regarding the mitigation of the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. during the first half of March 2021 along with comparisons to prior half-month time periods. The survey asks about the degree to which the respondents perceive that people in their community are following 21 common mitigation practices. The responses are separated by state and compared to state level statistics regarding the level of COVID-19 infections from the Johns Hopkins COVID database for the same time period.

Description: This report explores AI bias in insurance and health data, highlighting the ethical role of actuaries and offering cross-disciplinary guidance for fairer decision-making systems.

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: This paper is about an Interacting Particle System [IPS] approach to modeling treatment costs associated with a multiple stage pandemic. The model population receives differing treatments with possibly differing costs depending on the stage of exposure/infection. The total cost of treatment is a time varying utility function of the ensemble population for which this approach uses particle system methods to simulate the cost of maintaining survival of the population. The paper gives a brief background on particle systems with specific focus on 'the contact process', followed by expanding the contact process to represent more realistic state transitions.

Description: Health care cost trends are a key ingredient that health care actuaries use in their practice. In collaboration with the Health Care Cost Institute (HCCI), the Society of Actuaries has put together a data extract for practicing health actuaries to be able to better understand historical trends and cost disruptors.

Description: The document provides information on the ACA@15 research project, focusing on the extent that the Affordable Care Act legislation was able to meet its stated goals of reducing the uninsured rate, increasing coverage options, and providing affordable health insurance. It includes research findings, objectives, and key takeaways.