Description: Join the PAI-SOA Joint Seminar to connect with actuaries, insurance, finance, and investment professionals from Indonesia, the Asia-Pacific region, and beyond. Enhance your professional knowledge and connections in this collaborative environment.

Description: Equity-Based Insurance Guarantee Webcast Series

Description: Study, discuss and explore the professionalism practice, code of conduct and application of the actuarial profession. Hear from seasoned presenters from mainland China as they cover several issues encountered in daily actuarial working environments through business cases and interactive discussions.

Description: Keynote Speaker: J.D. Kleinke, Author and Medical Economist J.D. Kleinke has been instrumental in the creation of four health care information organizations; has served on the Boards of several health care companies; and spent many years advising both sides of the political aisle on non-partisan, practical approaches to health policy and legislation.

Description: In *From Distress to Distinction*, Chris Droussiotis explores a novel approach to valuing distressed companies using option pricing theory, drawing parallels to the financial challenges faced by startups. With over 30 years in banking and startup advising, he emphasizes that both distressed firms and early-stage ventures endure periods of negative cash flow but retain potential for recovery. He combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to evaluate distressed firms’ recovery prospects and debt sustainability. A case study on Spirit Airlines illustrates this approach: though its current equity value is negative, projected future cash flows suggest significant potential recovery. Droussiotis concludes that strategic valuation, using trend, peer, and expected analysis, can reveal hidden value in distressed companies, guiding effective investment and restructuring decisions.

Description: The article explores a closed-form forecasting method that combines Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), weighted linear regression, and ridge regression (L2 regularization). The approach addresses two key challenges in time-series forecasting: adapting to nonstationarity and mitigating overfitting due to multicollinearity. EWMA assigns more weight to recent observations, while ridge regression penalizes large coefficients to stabilize estimates. A cross-validation strategy across rolling time windows selects optimal hyperparameters: the EWMA decay factor (α) and the ridge penalty (λ). The method is tested using repeated regressions of stock returns, showing that most hyperparameter combinations outperform ordinary least squares (OLS) under the (λ=1, α=0) setting.

Description: Healthcare risk adjustment methodologies have become increasingly complex, largely due to the belief that complexity enhances accuracy. However, a disconnect exists between how healthcare risk is assessed and how payments are adjusted. This article explores the stark difference between measuring the accuracy of a risk assessment model at a member level, and that of a risk adjustment mechanism at the health plan level. I show that a highly simplified approach that does not use diagnosis codes can have similar accuracy on risk adjusted payments to models that do. These findings suggest that accuracy is not a barrier to developing simpler risk adjustment methodologies, which can improve payment accuracy and reduce the financial incentive for coding diagnoses.

Description: The introduction and effective application of US GAAP LDTI have increased the scrutiny of those reviewing the updated financial results. That is because LDTI has resulted in significant changes in actuarial reserving and deferred acquisition cost (DAC) models for long-duration contracts, including significant changes to data, assumptions and required disclosures. In light of the changes, greater reliance has been put on companies’ model risk management (MRM) teams and model validations to assess the conceptual soundness and accuracy of their companies’ actuarial models and to assess that the underlying data and process utilized are suitable and appropriate. This article covers a brief background on model validation, walk through a sample LDTI-focused model validation framework/test plan, then provide insights on common LDTI-related validation observations based on the authors' prior validation experience.

Description: The article investigates the reasons behind non-zero financial implications for fully reinsured businesses within the regulatory frameworks of US GAAP Long Duration Targeted Improvements (LDTI) and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 17. It helps companies grasp the nuances of these standards, thereby enhancing their risk management strategies, improving regulatory compliance and optimizing their decision-making processes.

Description: This article focuses on the recent surge of digital medicine data being seen in the healthcare industry. While an increase in data can generally be perceived as good, it is important to remember that current privacy practices need to be maintained, if not strengthened, to continually protect healthcare members. The COVID-19 pandemic helped fuel digital medicine data, but it also created new avenues for privacy to potentially be compromised (i.e. healthcare employees using personal devices while working from home). Digital medicine data is a very powerful asset, but it is also a massive responsibility. If mishandled, this data can cause more harm than good.