Description: Much of the push for ERM has come from regulators and rating agencies, but it is being applied in internal company decision-making as well. This paper reviews the progress made and the needs still outstanding in two key areas of application: optimal capital level for an insurer and risk-adjusted profitability of business units. The basic conclusion is that progress has been made in these areas, but more is needed. Building models is not emphasized—it will be assumed that a state-of-the art model is available. The emphasis is on using such models in decision-making.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Best Model Doesn't Win

Description: Investment Fallacies: Mathematical modeling of social phenomena

Description: Investment Fallacies: On the Validity of Common Portfolio Return Assumptions

Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: This is a presentation from 39th Actuarial Research Conference, 8/5-7/2004, University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa. The aim of this paper is to consider economic capital for a multi-line insurer and the fair allocation to lines of business. In addition, this paper also allows for a model with assets, liabilities and insolvency exchange option fairly priced, complete markets and no market frictions.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Fallacy of Independence

Description: Investment Fallacies: A real-world approach to Value at Risk

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification

Description: Investment Fallacies: Future Equity Returns