Description: The author reviews the book, The Perfect Swarm: The Science of Complexity in Everyday Life, by Len Fisher. He provides his own interpretation of the power of the swarm and touts the book as a straightforward and informative introduction to various aspects of complexity science.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Can the aggregate results from a group be used to forecast something as subjective and judgmental as one single person’s opinion? Forecasting of this type commonly uses a set of techniques known as collaborative filtering which is discussed at length in this article.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: Profile of an actuary in a non-traditional actuarial role: focusing on medical cost and analysis, both retrospective and prospective.