Description: The panel will discuss several product challenges including modeling hybrid/combo long-term care products, modeling benefit options that are difficult to model using deterministic methods, modeling current situs of care versus original situs of care, monitoring assumptions, streamlining experience studies within the Long-duration Targeted Improvements (LDTI) framework, and model decision making with limited credible data. The panel will then move into solutions observed to address some of the aforementioned challenges and the future of long-term care modelling

Description: The editorial board of the North American Actuarial Journal (NAAJ) announces the recipient of the NAAJ Annual Prize for the best paper published in 2023, “The Economic Impact of Extreme Cyber Risk Scenarios,” coauthored by Martin Eling, Mauro Elvedi, and Dr. Greg Falco. The NAAJ is the scholarly journal of the Society of Actuaries (SOA).

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: In *From Distress to Distinction*, Chris Droussiotis explores a novel approach to valuing distressed companies using option pricing theory, drawing parallels to the financial challenges faced by startups. With over 30 years in banking and startup advising, he emphasizes that both distressed firms and early-stage ventures endure periods of negative cash flow but retain potential for recovery. He combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to evaluate distressed firms’ recovery prospects and debt sustainability. A case study on Spirit Airlines illustrates this approach: though its current equity value is negative, projected future cash flows suggest significant potential recovery. Droussiotis concludes that strategic valuation, using trend, peer, and expected analysis, can reveal hidden value in distressed companies, guiding effective investment and restructuring decisions.

Description: Learn from panelists from different companies as they come together to discuss their experiences.

Description: Building new models or migrating from one system to another is hard! During this session, you will hear from your colleagues who have gone through such projects. You will gain a better sense of what to expect, what to avoid, and what to prioritize for such projects. The discussion will be system agnostic. Learn about pitfalls and how to avoid them!

Description: Private LTC insurers are paving the way for value-based care through working to implement care management programs that improve the lives of their policyholders before and during a claim. However, measuring the effectiveness of these new programs is a challenging task. In this article, we will explore powerful tools that can enhance traditional effectiveness studies and address some of their existing weaknesses.

Description: Guidance and a model for actuaries to use when performing their professional services related to Medicaid (Title XIX) and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP or Title XXI) managed care capitation rate setting.

Description: The instructors in this boot camp session will highlight the SOA's work on an updated Medicaid underwriting margin model. This research project includes an excel model, a set of instructions and a paper describing the key components of underwriting margin, including cost of capital and risk margin.