Description: This is the first year for appointed actuaries in the United States ot review X factors and evaluate actual morality experience that is emerging. This article atempts to provide a simpified explanation of how Monte Carlo simulation can be used by a small company to evaluate its mortality experience.

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.

Description: Abstract of Research Project on Interest Rate Risk

Description: Reviewing a text covering multiple statistical modeling topics: e.g., generalized linear models, decision trees, clustering, using the statistical language R.

Description: Excerpts from a conversation with Alan Mills regarding his work in complexity science and agent-based modeling.

Description: This article offers a comprehensive approach for “lean” model risk management (MRM), i.e., the management of an MRM program with few or possibly one employee devoted to the role. It explores key objectives of an MRM program, essential process elements, tips for efficiency, and examine the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the models themselves and as a tool to increase efficiency of the program.

Description: This paper introduces and illustrates a new version of the Monte Carlo method that has attractive properties for the numerical valuation of derivatives. Quasi-Monte Carlo methods use deterministic sequences that are quasi-random sequences that result in better convergence and deterministic error bounds.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to explore pension plan dynamics— – the behavior of a defined- benefit pension plan over time in an uncertain environment. We proceed by simulating the behavior of a model plan in a stochastically varying economic environment. While both the model and its environment are simplified, the model displays interesting behavior suggesting policy considerations that should be included in the design and funding of these plans.

Description: This is a short story on the retirement income calculator.