Description: Established as part of the 1998 Utah State legislative session, the State of Utah's Children's Health Insurance Program CHIP delivers much-needed health insurance to children that are not eligible for Medicaid and who are below certain poverty levels. From Prescription Drugs Monograph, M-HB04-1.

Description: This paper examines the factors affecting claims in a group health insurance plan.

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.

Description: The costly, time-consuming and complicated process of enterprise risk management (ERM) can be improved in many companies and made less tedious for managers by using reasonable data and templates obtained from peer group entities. The models used to calculate economic capital (EC) often underestimate its value because they do not consider decision-maker perception about risk. We assume here that managers, as the decision-makers, have appropriate business understanding and they can provide substantial information about risk characteristics regarding all business processes. Therefore we are focused, in this paper, on collecting data from managers across the different businesses to derive the appropriate knowledge about risky events, the importance of particular types of risk, the relationship between the risk outcomes and the level of risk control in a particular industry. We conclude that the collected data has a high potential for use as a benc hmarking reference and analysis for improving ERM models for individual businesses.

Description: The U.K. Pension Protection Fund (PPF) was established in April 2005 to protect the pensions of members of U.K. private sector defined benefit pension schemes that have insufficient assets and whose corporate sponsor fails. The Fund takes over the pension scheme assets and assumes responsibility for the payment of compensation to the former members of the scheme. The PPF is funded by a levy on the population of eligible schemes. To improve its ERM framework, the PPF has undertaken a reverse stress testing exercise. This analysis provided the organization with new insights into its risk profile, the scenarios leading to the PPF’s potential “failure,” and interactions between these scenarios. This paper discusses the principles and objectives of reverse stress testing in the special case of the PPF and then illustrates the application of complex system science techniques for the purpose of reverse stress testing.

Description: With so many different models and ways of building them, the task of organizing our thinking about models can seem overwhelming. The paper proposes a framework of four categories of models and seven attributes. By comparing each model category across these attributes, it provides insight into practical questions like, "are some modeling approaches inherently better than others?" and "how should the level and type of model risk management effort depend on model category?"

Description: Analyse the increase in the number of centenarians in Quebec (Canada) across birth cohorts (1871 to 1901). Outline some of the demographic mechanisms involved.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper, The Cost and Benefits of Treating Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus as a Chronic Condition by Robert D. Lieberthal.

Description: In any model, assumptions are necessary to generate output. Typically, the model is run with varying assumptions to determine how sensitive the output is to the input. But what if the philosophy of generating assumptions is flawed?

Description: Chapter 4 analyzes, in table form, the study's claimant counts and charges in excess of deductible, broken down by deductible level, geographic region, age, gender, and subscriber vs. dependent status. From Group Medical Insurance Large Claims Database Collection and Analysis, M-HB97-1.