Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This paper introduces actuaries and others to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, a type of macroeconomic model. Authored by Kailan Shang, the paper illustrates how DSGE models can be used in economic scenario generation to reflect the cause and effect relationships that occur in the economic system.

Description: InsurTech is commonly described as the providing insurance protection and services through new technology innovations, often with a goal of producing savings and efficiency from the traditional insurance industry model. InsurTech is a seen as a growing place where the actuarial profession provides expertise and services.

Description: This paper is about an Interacting Particle System [IPS] approach to modeling treatment costs associated with a multiple stage pandemic. The model population receives differing treatments with possibly differing costs depending on the stage of exposure/infection. The total cost of treatment is a time varying utility function of the ensemble population for which this approach uses particle system methods to simulate the cost of maintaining survival of the population. The paper gives a brief background on particle systems with specific focus on 'the contact process', followed by expanding the contact process to represent more realistic state transitions.

Description: This paper studies the tail probability of discounted aggregate claims in a continuous-time renewal model. For the case that the common claim-size distribution is subexponential, the authors obtain an asymptotic formula, which holds uniformly for all time horizons within a finite interval. Then, with some additional mild assumptions on the distributions of the claim sizes and inter-arrival times, the authors further prove that this formula holds uniformly for all time horizons.

Description: Constant maturity credit default swaps [CMCDS] are useful as hedging tools. In intensity model approach, the default time is defined as the first arrival time of the Poisson process. From the market quotes of CDS forward rates and bonds, we are able to numerically compute the default probabilities. Approximating CMCDS price depends largely on CDS forward rates’ volatilities and their correlations. This paper implements the price algorithm based on Brigo’s work [2006]. Starting with current market data such as CDS forward rates and nondefaultable bond prices, the paper describes steps involved to obtain the price CMCDS. The paper demonstrates the impact of convexity on the CMCDS price structure.

Description: We derive formulas for calculating the premiums that should be charged on policies in a discounted cash flow model with tax reserves and required assets that are determined by regulation. We also determine the unique division of required assets into “reserves” and “capital” that allows the product profitability to be correctly evaluated. That is, the profit after capital charges is zero if the product achieves the return assumed in pricing. We illustrate the concepts using whole life insurance and guaranteed minimum death benefit examples.

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: Sponsored by the Society of Actuaries Research Expanding Boundaries Pool, this report examines an encompassing method to allocating economic capital in insurance conglomerates. Authored by Edward Furman, Yisub Kye, and Jianxi Su, the plan put forth unifies the centralized top-down and the detail-oriented bottom-up approaches