Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. In this paper, a multivariate quasi-negative binomial distribution is proposed to model frequency dependence among different risk types. The operational risk diversification effect is illustrated through frequency dependency modeled by the bivariate quasi-negative binomial distribution under a framework of Monte Carlo simulation.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is the abstract of the referenced paper.

Description: Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper examines the relationship between the earliest stages of dementia—mild cognitive impairment—and mortality. Using data from long-term care insurance applicants, and linking this to the Social Security Master Death File, the authors focus on the classification results of two cognitive screens used at various times in the underwriting process. Applying the Cox Proportional Hazards Model as well as relative mortality ratio analysis, the authors show that the proportion of individuals classified as cognitively impaired have significantly higher relative mortality compared to those classified as cognitively intact.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. The U.S. retirement system has many defects that affect individuals’ ability to survive living to 100. This paper explores some of the problems that individuals face and recommends changes that could make the U.S. system work better.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper explores the select period and the wealth effect at older ages, and also examines mortality rates for three distinct senior populations: 1. the U.S. population, through an annual sample of the Medicare database of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2. the life settlement population of an independent life settlement underwriter, 21st Services LLC, and 3. the population implied by the Society of Actuaries' 2008 Valuation Basic Tables VBT.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2011. Using data from Social Security's Death Master File, this study shows that mortality deceleration in humans observed at advanced ages may be an artifact caused by age exaggeration, data heterogeneity or use of improper estimates of hazard rate. The phenomenon of mortality deceleration at older ages vanishes for datasets of higher data quality.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2011. The outcome of achieving a way to slow or stop the aging process in humans would have profound consequences that would affect virtually every human institution. In this paper, the author discusses the impact on human life if a means were found to slow the human aging process. It is the author’s belief that most of the consequences would not benefit either the individual or society.

Description: When companies engage in risk management activities, they can be seen as modifying their distributions of future outcomes. Often, this takes the form of trading off a sure cost for a decrease in some potential risk of loss. Companies may carry out these activities with several goals in mind, such as reduction in earnings volatility or preservation of capital. This paper will demonstrate a method for evaluating possible strategies by dividing the effects on costs and risks into three tranches: earnings, impact and estate. The tranches can be associated with different interests of the various stakeholders. This trifurcation analysis can help to explain the risk-reward trade-offs of different risk treatment alternatives and can aid in risk-related decisionmaking.

Description: The paper applies a back‐testing validation methodology of economic scenario generating models and introduces a new D‐statistic to evaluate the robustness of the underlying model during a specified validation period. The statistic presented here can be used to identify the optimal model by repeating calibrations with changing initial parameters. It can compare between calibration methods, be used to rank between models, and provide a single concise reporting metric for ongoing model monitoring.

Description: Many financial institutions calculate economic capitals for different risks through separate processes. This paper reveals a closed‐form solution in calibrating Gumbel copula for risk aggregation. It demonstrates its several desired features and shows the detailed procedure to aggregate commercial and consumer credit risk capitals.