Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: This workbook shows the Sugarscape model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction (and invitation) for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.

Description: An overview of forecasting methods potentially applicable to the work of actuaries, including preferred applications, current usage among actuaries and within the general business community, along with references for further study.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This study note introduces the methodology and tools of applied futurism. Actuaries must explore new methodologies and tools for dealing with open unstable systems. The discipline of futurism has developed and tested a methodology and tools to apply to these systems. This note intends to provide sufficient knowledge, skills, and attitudes about applied futurism, so the tools and perspectives can be used daily by an actuary. In the note, we will orient you to the general field of futurism by reviewing its history and comparing it to similar disciplines such as strategic planning, economic planning, and actuarial science. We will also bring you up-to-date on the current state of knowledge about how change happens in our world of complicated open systems, and why we need the tools of applied futurism. Finally, we will describe the methodology and tools of applied futurism. If you wish to learn more about applied futurism,provides a basic bibliography of important works in this area.

Description: This file contains functions to produce the graph examples found in Chapter four of the report titled "Complexity science - an introduction (and invitation) for actuaries".

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.