Description: We explore four plausible scenarios for how AI might reshape the future, focusing on employment as the main driver. At one extreme, AI boosts productivity, sparks entrepreneurship, and leads to near-full employment through human-AI collaboration and reformed education. At the other end of the spectrum AI-induced mass layoffs trigger an economic spiral, with soaring unemployment, creative stagnation, and societal resentment. The middle path presents a fragmented transition with a two-tier workforce, periodic recessions, and variable adaptation success. Lastly AI fizzles due to poor returns and rising costs, causing economic stagnation and investor losses without widespread disruption. Each scenario also includes potential impacts on the insurance industry, ranging from innovation and growth to regulatory strain and investment losses in the others. Proactive scenario planning, by preparing for multiple futures by identifying early warning signals, adapting plans, and strengthening institutional resilience is encouraged. The article closes with four additional speculative scenarios, including government-controlled AI, AI dominance, militarized AI, and mass surveillance. Ultimately, the piece argues that while AI’s future is uncertain, the choices made today will shape whether it becomes a partner, a threat, or a disappointment.

Description: Call for essays on how actuaries can apply their financial skills to support non-profit financial management and promote societal purpose.

Description: This report explores how artificial intelligence can be applied to investment and retirement planning, highlighting real-world applications, risks, and recommendations.

Description: "Hear AM Best rating analysts discuss the rating process and the best capital adequacy ratio (BCAR), a quantitative foundation for AM Best’s assessment of carriers’ financial strength. The benchmarking of BCAR scores for various company types (national MCOs, BCBS plans, smaller regional plans) will be discussed. Look at how changes in investment and underwriting environment impacted the results over the past several years. Further, AM Best’s view of the quality of capital and various factors impacting the overall assessment of the balance sheet strength will be discussed. By attending this session, you will: Gain an understanding of AM Best’s building block approach to ratings and how the BCAR results fit into the process. Learn the differences between RBC and BCAR models. Learn how various factors—e.g. liquidity, financial flexibility, financial leverage, the org structure—impact the final AM Best assessment of health companies' capital."

Description: Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the investment landscape. From natural language processing and large language models to physical AI applications like robotics, autonomous vehicles, and drones, the evolution of AI is reshaping both how we analyze data and where we find opportunity. We’ll begin by exploring the evolution of AI, which is already driving disruption across industries such as coding, customer service, and marketing. However, the future of AI is physical AI (drones, AVs, robotics). With valuations already stretched, and growing concerns about the “circular economy” and bubble risks, investors should focus on high-quality tech companies that generate free cash flow and deliver strong returns on invested capital. We'll explore examples of interesting companies across the globe: Meta, Alphabet, and Uber in the US; ASML in Europe; Tokyo Electron in Japan; TSMC in Taiwan; and BYD in China. The session will also examine how natural language processing and large language models are reshaping the way quantitative and fundamental managers extract insights from raw data. We’ll highlight how these tools are being deployed to enhance understanding of risk and return, and how they’re increasingly supporting collaboration between quant and fundamental teams.

Description: History of Life Insurance insolvencies and evolution of statutory reporting requirements and laws to enable improved control over preventing insolvencies. Reflects my extensive personal knowledge serving on regulatory and industry boards and committees regarding these developments. A key item of solvency control in Risk Based Capital. References provided for FRBC/insolvency data from NAIC and the GAO.

Description: This article highlights the significant steps being taken by the UK actuarial profession to establish a more focused role in risk management.

Description: The article offers a more nuanced approach to caregiving as the population ages, suggesting our current focus on planning leaves out most people. Instead find solutions for non-planners!

Description: Insurers have long relied on scenario analysis to understand the long-term impacts of potential business decisions, but the advent of rapidly changing market environments and a growing desire to optimize capital has spurred business leaders to leverage new tools in order to explore potential options.

Description: Address issues in value-based contract accounting from an actuarial perspective. In Medicare and ACA business, what issues does risk adjustment present to value-based contract accounting? In Medicare, what issues do Part D present in value-based contract accounting and what are possible solutions? What are the issues in the use of provider stop loss in value-based contract accounting? Are there issues in the timeliness of claims in value-based contract accounting? Are we giving providers enough information for them to manage their population? How do we deal with deficit accounts? What are the pros and cons of capitation, gainshare, and full risk in value-based accounting?