Description: This report describes two methods, an observation-based analysis and an actual to model analysis, to analyze long-term care insurance experience to determine if calendar year trends exist.

Description: The Canadian Institute of Actuaries and Society of Actuaries Committee on Life Insurance Research, the Product Development Section and the Financial Reporting Section, sponsored this study investigating how the Canadian life insurance industry is utilizing predictive modelling.

Description: The Society of Actuaries released research in 2007 that develops a model for a U.S. individual life insurance company to consider its potential liability exposure as a result of a pandemic. Sponsored by the Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee, this paper updates several model assumptions including mortality in light of COVID-19.

Description: This is the user guide for the forecasting tool for the project Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality by Socioeconomic Factors.

Description: Presents some elementary and down-to-earth calculations for the optimal dividend strategy that maximizes the expectation of the discounted dividends until the possible ruin of a company.

Description: This paper fits a logistic model to the actual data of cumulative cases from the 2003 SARS outbreak. The model proves a good fit for the four areas examined: China [mainland], Canada, Hong Kong and Singapore. Explanatory variables are then incorporated to link the model parameters to economic and demographic indices of areas hit heavily by SARS. The work enables prediction of the future behavior of SARS or other epidemics should they ever strike again.

Description: This paper discusses stochastic treatments for insured Long Term Disability [LTD] benefits under a group insurance policy.

Description: The problem of finding the distribution of sums of lognormally distributed random variables is discussed. References going back to the 1930’s are given, as well as some possible solutions. A formula for the characteristic function of one lognormal is stated, and then the moments and distribution of the logarithm of sums of lognormals are considered.

Description: This presentation provided an analysis of investment guarantees in equity-linked products. There was an overview of the data and models in use. In addition an actuarial approach to left-tail analysis was presented as well as a dynamic hedging approach. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This is the Retirement Strategy Metrics paper authored by Mark Shemtob for Session 2B of the January 13-15, 2020 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.