Description: This articles explores the notion of whether the old rules and paradigms of investment strategy and caution may no longer be applicable in today’s financial environment, because things were “different this time.”

Description: This article discusses data mining and the statistics of coincidence, and provides “guidelines for backtesting integrity” to help ensure results have value beyond mere coincidence. Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of the Horizon, a publication of BARRA, Inc., and is reprinted with permission.

Description: “What is the likelihood of market crashes? This article seeks to provide an answer to this and related questions by focusing mainly on the crash of October 1987. Specifically, we shall seek answers to three questions: 1. Given the history of market returns, was the crash of ‘87 unusual? 2. How do conditional variance models such as GARCH behave around periods of extreme moves in the market? 3. What is the impact of the crash on backtesting and performance evaluation?” Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of The BARRA Newsletter, Horizon, and is reprinted here with permission.

Description: This article discusses the new profession of financial engineering and the fit of actuaries in this profession.

Description: This article is a call for work that has been done in stochastic modeling and papers in the area of of stochastic modeling of investment returns in respect of the maturity and mortality guarantees offered on segregated fund and variable annuity products. These will be used in the symposium on stochastic modeling in September 1999 sponsored by the CIA, SOA and Actuarial Foundation.

Description: The article discusses under which conditions it is appropriate to use the true probability distribution or the risk-neutral probability distribution for interest rate scenario generation. It addresses which should be used for valuation purposes and strategy development.

Description: Dynamically Hedging Insurance Product Risk by Marshall C. Greenbaum from Risks and Rewards Newsletter, April 2000, Issue No. 34. A dynamic hedging program cab be an effective solution to insurance company market risk management problems.

Description: The author notes that equity investment management is often classified into a number of different styles, the simplest being growth and value. In discussing both approaches the author also brings in the concept of momentum and concludes that momentum should be an additional parameter reviewed in the investment decision.

Description: The author notes that “insurance companies have been in the business of risk management for hundreds of years. The latest trend towards risk management in banks is both new to insurance companies and very old hat—new because it applies new techniques at least new to the last half century and old hat because many risk management techniques are so old hat to insurance companies that they are almost unconsciously performing them.”

Description: As equity markets decline and become more volatile, the likelihood of significant guaranteed benefit claims increases, while increases from mortality and expense fees declines. The article illustrates how to use a derivative contract, a properly structured total return swap, to turn a company's uncertain M&E revenue patterns into predictable revenue.