Description: Paper estimates the burden of chronic disability on the U.S. elderly population, using sex-specific measures of long-term care LTC service use, intensity and costs.

Description: This paper presents an advanced approach to enterprise risk management that, according to the author, significantly improves upon current approaches. The two fundamental elements are a focus on the management of strategic plans and a heavy reliance upon probability theory.

Description: This is Table 2 from a March 2011 presentation at the 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium entitled Capital Allocation in the Property-Liability Insurance Industry.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is the abstract of the entitled paper.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper starts by defining and discussing the nature of risk and its primary relationship to capital preservation. The paper then continues with a guide for implementing a company’s risk appetite statement for a variable annuity product.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. In this paper, a multivariate quasi-negative binomial distribution is proposed to model frequency dependence among different risk types. The operational risk diversification effect is illustrated through frequency dependency modeled by the bivariate quasi-negative binomial distribution under a framework of Monte Carlo simulation.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is the abstract of the referenced paper.

Description: Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper examines the relationship between the earliest stages of dementia—mild cognitive impairment—and mortality. Using data from long-term care insurance applicants, and linking this to the Social Security Master Death File, the authors focus on the classification results of two cognitive screens used at various times in the underwriting process. Applying the Cox Proportional Hazards Model as well as relative mortality ratio analysis, the authors show that the proportion of individuals classified as cognitively impaired have significantly higher relative mortality compared to those classified as cognitively intact.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper explores the select period and the wealth effect at older ages, and also examines mortality rates for three distinct senior populations: 1. the U.S. population, through an annual sample of the Medicare database of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2. the life settlement population of an independent life settlement underwriter, 21st Services LLC, and 3. the population implied by the Society of Actuaries' 2008 Valuation Basic Tables VBT.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2011. Using data from Social Security's Death Master File, this study shows that mortality deceleration in humans observed at advanced ages may be an artifact caused by age exaggeration, data heterogeneity or use of improper estimates of hazard rate. The phenomenon of mortality deceleration at older ages vanishes for datasets of higher data quality.