Description: The Product Development Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Modeling Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present new research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality. Authored by a Milliman team led by Alexandre Boumezoued, the report develops a framework for forecasting cause specific death rates. Included also is a Cause of Deaths Forecasting Tool and a user guide for the tool.

Description: A fuzzy random variable [FRV] has been conceptualized as a vague perception of a crisp but unobservable random variable [RV] and also as a random fuzzy set. Since actuaries seem receptive to these notions of FRV, and there are sources of uncertainty that RVs can not accommodate, but FRVs can, one would expect FRVs to be a component of the actuarial arsenal, but generally this is not the case. Assuming that the reason for this is that potential users are not sufficiently familiar with FRV methodology, the purpose of this article is to help alleviate this situation by presenting a FRV primer.

Description: In the classical risk theoretic model with Poisson claim arrival and exponential claims, consider the discounted value of claims nos. 3, 6, 9, and so on. [To risk theory specialists, considering every third claim in a Poisson arrival process is the same as assuming waiting times are Erlang[3] in a Sparre-Andersen model.] The distribution of the discounted value of future claims can be found. It turns out that this is the same as the distribution of the product of two independent variables, one having a gamma distribution, the other a 'complex-parameter beta product distribution'. The latter will be defined, it involves extending the usual beta distribution.

Description: The Mortality Improvement subgroup of the American Academy of Actuaries’ Work Group and the Society of Actuaries’ Mortality and Longevity Oversight Advisory Council released a recommendation for a set of improvement factors that vary by gender and attained age to be used in conjunction with the 2008 Valuation Basic table or the 2015 Valuation Basic table for AG-38 purposes. This recommendation has been adopted by the NAIC’s Life Actuarial Task Force.

Description: This report provides actuaries and other finance professionals with an example of running the Medicaid Unwinding model with results at the national level on projected changes in both acuity and enrollment for Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program.

Description: This report explores the behavioral factors influencing insurance purchase among Gen Z and Millennials for forward-looking purposes, leveraging a rich dataset spanning 22 markets across six continents.

Description: This project models and forecasts premature cardiovascular mortality, with a focus on two main risk factors - obesity status and education attainment level. It investigates the role of obesity and education in determining age-sex-specific premature cardiovascular mortality.

Description: Authored by a MIB Solutions team of Tom Rhodes, Stuart Klugman, Marianne Purushotham and Stacy Gill, the report summarizes the results of a study on the application and adoption of credibility theory within the life insurance and annuity industry. In addition to the report, numerical examples related to the application of credibility to company mortality and lapse data are provided in the four Excel files. This excel spreadsheet is a numerical example relating to the application of Credibility for mortality. Please see the SOA website research section for the complete report on Credibility Theory Practices.

Description: Authored by a MIB Solutions team of Tom Rhodes, Stuart Klugman, Marianne Purushotham and Stacy Gill, the report summarizes the results of a study on the application and adoption of credibility theory within the life insurance and annuity industry. In addition to the report, numerical examples related to the application of credibility to company mortality and lapse data are provided in the four Excel files. This excel spreadsheet is a numerical example relating to the application of Credibility for mortality - Limited Fluctuation Method. Please see the SOA website research section for the full report on Credibity Theory Practices.

Description: This report explores estimation of employee stock options exercise behavior and option cost to firms.