Description: For the purposes of risk management and stress testing, we characterize a spectrum of plausible extreme events, that we dub Grey Swans, by introducing a probabilistic method involving the concentration of measure phenomenon. As a result, stress tests can be triaged according to severity, probability and, now, information-based plausibility.

Description: The author constructed the efficient frontier of new business sales by modeling the embedded value and economic capital against a universe of possible growth rates of the three lines of business in a typical three-year planning horizon. The ERM function can use the efficient frontier of new business to provide a more rigorous analysis of the impact of growth rates on the firm’s overall capital efficiency and value creation, hence forming a feedback loop with the businesses in the planning process to optimize the growth strategy.

Description: Many risk management decisions involve the timing of implementing risk strategies. The cost of hedging, capital raising and securitization changes with the economic environment. The timing of de-risking and investment in new risk management functions affect the cost and benefit of these projects as well. Like investment timing, it is important to consider the timing in risk management decisions to maximize the gain of risk management projects. This paper discusses methods of determining the appropriate timing of implementing a risk management strategy or investing in risk management projects. It explains the human biases that may lead to inferior timing decisions. It also covers the costs and benefits of risk management projects and the impact of new information on the decision-making process. Timing considerations for financial risk hedging, insurance risk hedging and investment in new risk management projects are explained. Factors used for timing decisions include economic conditions, market volatility, credit rating, borrowing cost, capital adequacy and financial resources.

Description: Review of stochastic, modeled geo-spatial risk metrics for insurance loss concentration and clustering and their counter point use for diversification

Description: Using basic actuarial principles to develop a reasonable spending budget and to keep spending/savings on track to meet financial objectives.

Description: This article discusses a good way for insurance companies to calibrate economic capital (tail risk level) that is consistent with the market opinion on its risk. It also establishes a bridge between a risk neutral evaluation and a real world evaluation.

Description: From the 41st ARC: a presentation focusing on risk management of a pension plan whose benefit is the greater of a defined benefit DB and a defined contribution DC plan. Hedging strategies are derived and illustrated, recognizing that the DB guarantee is like an option.

Description: An introduction to ultimate life insurance, a product intended to be flexible enough to meet consumers' needs over their lifetimes. The paper gives some illustrations and discusses the Ultimate Life Financial Risk Analysis computer program.

Description: Traditional pension mathematics assumes that mortality rates are fixed at a valuation date. If mortality rates reduce after a valuation date, the liabilities of a defined benefit plans 'DB plans' increase, leading to deficits. Such deficits are somewhat unpredictable, because the evolution of mortality rates is a random process. This problem, which is often called longevity risk, makes the maintenance of DB plans difficult. The International Accounting Standards Board 'IASB' has plans to tackle the arduous problem of how to disclose longevity risk on financial statements. The IASB was established in 2001 to create universal accounting standards, called International Accounting Reporting Standards 'IFRSs'. A primary objective of this paper is to propose a number of methods that can help actuaries and plan sponsors quantify and disclose longevity risk.

Description: This paper uses a simple example to examine the relationship between the pricing objective of ROI and the corporate profit measure of ROE. Additionally, this paper examines the effect on ROI and ROE of growth in the amount of new business. From Product Development Section Monograph, M-AS99-3.