Description: In this continuation of our July 2013 article we explore an algorithm for evaluating Hidden Markov Models in detail. A preferred method in speech recognition technology, Hidden Markov Models are a promising technique when dealing with data you suspect may be driven by a change in a unobservable state. The example in the article is provided in an Excel workbook for the reader to follow along with.

Description: An introduction of predictive modeling techniques that are applicable to insurance industry, including generalized linear model (GLM) and classification and regression tree model(CART). Other models such as data clustering, neural network, and support vector machine (SVM), are also briefly discussed.

Description: CHCS is a nonprofit policy center focused on improving American health outcomes, particularly for low-income people, including payment & delivery system reform.

Description: This article is the second in a two part series that summarizes a longer paper that can be downloaded from the website of the Social Insurance and Public Finance Section. Both articles take the form of a point-counterpoint dialogue addressing important aspects of social insurance programs. The first part discussed their nature, desirability and advantages, as well as whether they can form a framework to achieve sustainable inter-generational equity. This article focuses on whether pre-funding of a social insurance program can occur and can contribute to the financial security of the participants. Fundamental differences of opinion exist regarding these programs, not only due to different personal and political values, but also as a result of the viewpoint taken (for example, assessment of the program in isolation, consideration of the sponsoring government's financial situation, or the overall national economy).

Description: Recently, we have seen renewed interest in the international (or “offshore”) pension plan. An international plan typically provides benefits for internationally mobile workers of a multinational employer, but can also be used for certain other workers. The plan is usually located in a respected international finance centre.

Description: In a very general setting this paper describes a straightforward, non-parametric approach to aggregate "stand-alone" or marginal distributions with desired correlations without imposing additional assumptions on those marginals. We then develop two optimizations for the enterprise, one based on maximizing return on economic capital and the other based on a mean -semivariance efficient frontier from the investor point of view.

Description: This paper responds to comments on a proposed compulsory savings program combined with transparent investment vehicles designed to promote competition based on expense levels, fund performance and customer service. At retirement 50% of the account is annuitized in Participating Variable Annuity (PVA) backed by TIPS. All investment experience, expenses, and pooled longevity experience is passed to annuitants through periodic benefit adjustments. Annuities are priced uniformly based on age at commencement.