Description: This paper provides provide mathematically-founded insights for how climate change and water access will impact Californian agriculture in the coming decades.

Description: This Excel workbook contains the complete set of tables developed from the Society of Actuaries 2003 Pension Plan Termination and Retirement Study. Separate tabs are included for the Basic Age Table, Basic Service Table, Select & Ultimate Table, Small Plan Age Table, and Small Plan Service Table.

Description: This report highlights major weather stories that unfolded across the month of September 2020.

Description: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) affects many lives and has a large impact on health systems around the world. To better understand and predict costs for insurance plan members with CKD in the United States, we built a new model of their individual costs. Our model is the first to explicitly model both the CKD stage transition process and the distribution of costs given those stages.

Description: The earth’s ecosystem appears to be leaving the 10,000-year Holocene epoch that featured a stable environment. For homo sapiens, this stability encouraged a move from hunter/gatherer to farming and urban lifestyles. The new period showcases climate risk, resulting in higher temperatures and more extreme weather. These conditions lead to greater exposures to properties and economies when events like hurricanes and wildfires occur.

Description: This report provides an educational background on the process of building predictive models, as well as a detailed presentation of the model results. Predictive models provide a method to capture variation by multiple variables and understand the relationship between these variables. This allows for a deeper understanding of key variables than is possible under a traditional approach.

Description: In this paper the researchers analyze pension plans for three countries (Canada, the UK, and the US) using an ESG that includes a demographic ratio that has been defined consistently for all countries. In that regard the paper extends the literature and opens areas for future research.

Description: In this report, we explore the impact of clustering using the Medical Expenditure Panel Study (MEPS) data for children (aged 5 to 17) to build a bridge between oral health and overall health using dental and medical expenditures. We include social determinants of health as cluster input variables using the Partitioning around Medoids (PAM) method to identify children and their families who could potentially benefit from population health management related to oral health.

Description: We summarize some of the developments in corporate sustainability. The guiding principles of corporate sustainability are developed on the global stage, but implementation of these principles necessarily occurs at the individual company level. Our aim is to educate actuaries on the broad principles, point curious readers towards more research, and inspire actions that actuaries can take within their organizations to strengthen the long-term sustainability of the industries that actuaries serve.

Description: This report provides results from a recently conducted study using the AIR Wildfire Model for the United States and available climate and climate change information to estimate how climate change may influence wildfire losses to U.S. property by mid-century. The climate change conditioned catalogs were used to evaluate climate change impacts (relative change in losses) to the AIR Worldwide US Industry Exposure Database, with all factors other than area burned held constant.