Description: Climate change has the potential to wreak havoc on ecosystems worldwide. One anticipated repercussion is the change in suitable habitats of vectors, such as mosquitos and ticks, who can transmit serious and even life-threatening diseases to humans. In this report, we outline major vector-borne diseases, discuss their symptoms and treatment costs, and present the relevant research regarding their evolving spatial patterns due to climate change.

Description: This research project offers guidance and a model for actuaries to use when performing their professional services related to Medicaid (Title XIX) and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP or Title XXI) managed care capitation rate setting, including, but not limited to, their certification on behalf of a state in accordance with the requirements for actuarial soundness as set forth in law, federal regulation, and CMS guidance, as well as the actuary’s professional obligations under the Actuarial Standard of Practice (ASOP) 49 issued by the Actuarial Standards Board.

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: Dealing with more known unknowns? More scary knowns? Or unknown unknowns? What is the next unthinkable? What future events should actuaries actively be modelling and keep us up at night? The Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) put forth a call for essays exploring these risks. The Program Steering Committee selected these essays submitted by Sam Gutterman and Max Rudolph to publish, and are awarding them each a prize of $500. The Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee congratulates the authors and is happy to publish the winning essays on the SOA website.

Description: An update of selected key graphs from the Key Statistics section of previous COVID-19 briefs.

Description: This report presents the impact of Covid-19 on socioeconomic differentials in mortality in the United States. The study aims to understand how the pandemic affected various socioeconomic groups in the U.S. population.

Description: In this Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute report, authored by consultants from Milliman, Inc. (Milliman) we aim to study the effects of hurricanes on human health: whether there is a relationship between hurricanes and the observed prevalence of healthcare utilization or certain health conditions among the affected population, whether this relationship can be observed through a healthcare utilization dataset, and whether there is an interaction between this observation and metrics of socioeconomic vulnerability.

Description: Research project that assesses the accuracy of commonly used IBNR estimation methods for medical insurance over a wide range of scenarios. The methods are summarized, practical considerations in making the comparisons and the development of the data simulations for the comparisons are discussed.

Description: Since the outbreak began in January, numerous research groups throughout the world have developed models to forecast the number of deaths that could result from COVID-19. Updated April 24, 2020.

Description: This tool created graphs of Google's mobility Data. This version of the tool contains global, country-level data through July 31, 2020