Description: This paper examines some new Bayesian models for loss reserving inspired by a consideration of some of the methods and techniques appearing in the traditional chain ladder literature. This includes a possibly order restricted hierarchical Bayesian model for the year over year development factors. The issues of reserve variability and ranges of reasonable reserve estimates are considered. A new Bornhuetter-Ferguson styled Bayesian method of estimate revision is also discussed. These Bayesian models can be implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC methods in a variety of programming languages, and can serve as starting points for more advanced models. This paper describes their implementation in WinBUGS a specialized software program for MCMC simulations. Illustrative WinBUGS code is included.

Description: We consider a class of compound renewal risk process with claim waiting times have a discrete Km distribution. The classical compound binomial risk model is a special case when m = 1. Both recursive and explicit formulas are derived for the expected discounted penalty function due at ruin, for the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Many ruin related quantities can be analyzed through the penalty function, e.g., ruin probability, the p.g.f. of the time of ruin, joint and marginal distributions of the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin, claim causing ruin, as well as their moments. Detailed discussions are given in two special cases: claim sizes are rationally distributed, or the claim sizes distribution have a finite support.

Description: The Lee and Carter LC method is getting widely adopted for long-run forecasts of age specific mortality rates. That popularity is first due to the model simplicity. Moreover, the LC model has given successful results for various countries e.g. U.S., Chile, G7 countries. However, some difficulties arose when using population data from certain countries such as UK and Australia. In the present paper, the LC model is applied to data from four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Singular Value Decomposition SVD, the Weighted Least Square WLS and the Maximum Likelihood estimate MLE are used. These approaches give satisfactory results. The appropriate fitting period needs, however, to be well chosen. The properties of the model's parameters are studied using a bootstrap simulation.

Description: This article examines how parameter uncertainty leads to uncertainty in Value at Risk VaR estimates. Lacking a closed form solution, we use a first order approximation of VaR to map parameter changes into changes in the VaR value. When the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates is normal, this implies a normal approximation of the confidence interval about VaR. We describe this approximation in detail and explore some extensions to risk factor modeling.

Description: Response to Life Insurance 2020 Foresight – A Call for Essays. An essay stating the author’s vision for the future of the life insurance sector. Some smaller companies might focus on smaller niche markets rather than compete with larger companies in the broader markets.

Description: The goal for an insurance firm is to maximize value. This paper describes the approach using an objective function of the Option Adjusted Value of Distributable Earnings OAVDE. The paper provides a review of the evolution of accounting treatment suggests a methodology for estimating market value of assets and liabilities extends that market value to the value of the firm using OAVDE and illustrates how this methodology can be incorporated into an insurance firm's financial management. From Society of Actuaries Financial Reporting Monograph, M-AS99-1.

Description: This a two-part article on actuarial opinions and addresses the coordination of opinions found in the financial reporting environment of the brown or blue book actuary. From Society of Actuaries Financial Reporting Monograph, M-AS99-1.

Description: In this paper, a general multivariate duration analysis is introduced that does not depend on a mathematical formulation of the way in which a yield curve moves. To motivate the multivariate approach, simple examples are presented that demonstrate the limitations of the traditional model when yield curve shifts are not parallel.

Description: Complete monograph: Actuarial Consideration in Insurance Mergers and Acquisitions, M-FI03-1. This paper presents a broad overview of the actuarial considerations of insurance company transactions in developing countries, identifying both theoretical and practical issues that need to be addressed when trying to assess the potential value of a multi-national insurance transaction.

Description: The sale process is a team effort. On the sell side, the team usually consists of the seller, their investment banker, the external actuaries and a legal team. On the buy side, the team consists of accounting and tax experts in addition to the previous disciplines. For a sale to be successful, the team on each side must be able to communicate the story of the company in a consistent, focused manner to their publics. From Actuarial Considerations in Insurance Mergers and Acquisitions, M-FI03-1.