Description: The last 20 years of global interest rate experience has low interest rates for long periods of time ('low for long'), negative interest rates, strange yield curve shapes, and now the most rapid increase in interest rates in our history. What is it we should be focused on as risk managers? Low for long, high rates due to prolonged inflation, or some blend of the two? The session will discuss our interest rate experience and the factors that appear to be dominant for the next decade. The session will address how one establishes a set of stylized facts to guide the development of a suitable interest rate model and how calibration targets can be determined. Discussion will then move to the suitability of existing interest rate models for capturing the real-world risks that actuaries and other finance professionals are concerned with. Are there interest rate models that are fit for purpose given the past 20 years of experience? A selection of candidate models will be discussed and illustrated.

Description: This session will focus on what is new and coming at the Appointed Actuary (e.g., Actuarial Guideline ((AG)) 53, equity testing, etc.). We will provide highlights from the updated AAT Practice Note. A particular focus will be paid to asset classes that have received regulatory attention recently (e.g., commercial mortgage loans, collateralized loan obligations ((CLOs)), etc.).

Description: Our panel will discuss techniques for efficiently modeling assets and liabilities while minimizing the computational expense of full-blown nested Monte Carlo simulation. These techniques include: • Neural networks • Data clustering and selection of representative contracts • Scenario reduction • Proxy functions for estimating the value of complex assets and exotic derivatives embedded in liabilities. Attendees will learn about the theory behind these techniques and implementation practicalities, and we will present case studies illustrating their benefits.

Description: CMS has required hospitals to publish their chargemaster rates, cash discounts and negotiated rates as of January 1, 2021. Our panel is comprised of a data strategist, an executive from a large hospital system and an actuary.

Description: "New regulatory requirements demonstrate an increased focus on understanding the liquidity and behavioral risks of structured assets and the close association and interaction with liability lapse risk. In the US, Actuarial Guideline LIII (“AG53”) requires additional analysis & disclosure around the risks of structured, less liquid assets used to back insurance liabilities. In Bermuda, the implementation of Consultation Paper #2 includes several targeted requirements to capture lapse risk, asset behavioral risk, and liquidity risk in a more robust and dynamic way. These emerging requirements necessitate enhanced ALM modeling capabilities and a more holistic view of liquidity risk that incorporates both sides of the balance sheet. In this session, we will discuss these requirements, what companies are doing to fulfill them, and how their efforts feed into a broader improvement of the ALM function."

Description: Following recent market volatility and regulatory changes, market data and market-consistent economic scenarios are at the core of the valuation of liabilities and market risk benefits under regimes such as IFRS 17 and Long Duration Targeted Improvements. This webcast will explore options available to insurance companies to establish stable long-term volatility assumptions and discuss how the choice of financial data can impact the calibration and the simulation of credit spread scenarios.

Description: The NAIC continues to move ahead with the GOES (generator of economic scenarios) project for the transition to a new real-world economic scenario generator (ESG) prescribed for principle-based reserve and capital calculations. This session will provide a detailed project update from the regulator and practitioner perspective. An overview of model details and methods that have been decided, what remains to be determined, and the projected timeline for implementation will be discussed. Recent developments such as the industry field test and NAIC model office testing to assess the potential impact on reserves and capital will be discussed as will a review of the implementation of the stochastic exclusion ratio test (SERT). We will also discuss the components of the ESG model and the associated scenario sets the NAIC has exposed with respect to target and acceptance criteria. At the conclusion of this session, attendees will understand the current status of the NAIC GOES project and its projected timeline and will be able to describe the components of the model and how the model has been calibrated and validated. Attendees will also appreciate the remaining challenges in bringing the model to full implementation.

Description: Discover investing trends across the life and health industry as insurers seek to navigate rapidly changing rate and market environments. BlackRock will present results from its Peer Risk Study, which models industry holdings based on statutory filings at the CUSIP level. Through the Aladdin risk modeling software, expect a production of deep insights into insurer portfolio risk and return characteristics, as well as exploring how they have evolved. Keep an eye out for a partner to present on the evolution from their perspective. Start learning about what is happening on the asset side of the balance sheet across the industry.

Description: Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the investment landscape. From natural language processing and large language models to physical AI applications like robotics, autonomous vehicles, and drones, the evolution of AI is reshaping both how we analyze data and where we find opportunity. We’ll begin by exploring the evolution of AI, which is already driving disruption across industries such as coding, customer service, and marketing. However, the future of AI is physical AI (drones, AVs, robotics). With valuations already stretched, and growing concerns about the “circular economy” and bubble risks, investors should focus on high-quality tech companies that generate free cash flow and deliver strong returns on invested capital. We'll explore examples of interesting companies across the globe: Meta, Alphabet, and Uber in the US; ASML in Europe; Tokyo Electron in Japan; TSMC in Taiwan; and BYD in China. The session will also examine how natural language processing and large language models are reshaping the way quantitative and fundamental managers extract insights from raw data. We’ll highlight how these tools are being deployed to enhance understanding of risk and return, and how they’re increasingly supporting collaboration between quant and fundamental teams.

Description: Gain an overview of the requirements for the new asset adequacy Actuarial Guideline 53 (AG53) guideline for complex assets. You will discover helpful insights and considerations for multi-scenario testing and sensitivity testing as well as approaches to developing attribution analyses for complex assets. You will also receive insights from any published regulatory materials that help describe what worked well and what needs improvement based on the initial AG 53 submissions from year-end 2022.