Description: This article describes the development of the uninsured pensioner, UP-94 Mortality Table, including a comparison with other tables and description of projection methodologies using Projection Scale AA.

Description: This report provides a framework of analyses and methods that can be use to compare and assess strategies for developing lifetime retirement income.

Description: Article from Risk Management Newsletter, March 2006, No. 7 on Standard & Poor's Enterprise Risk Management evaluation of insurers. In October 2005, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services announced a new addition to the analysis process that leads to the ratings of insurers: Enterprise Risk Management ERM evaluation criteria.

Description: This paper reviews the general methodology of capture-recapture procedures and describes some applications such as estimating the size of the undercount in censuses and estimating the number of duplicate records on in a database. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2006.

Description: Prior work indicates that a regime-switching stochastic model with randomized regime parameters creates a more plausible set of extreme paths than do the usual stochastic interest rate models. Generalizing the Black-Karasinski model by randomizing the mean reversion target provides an example. Better to understand such models, as well as to calibrate their parameters without trial and error runs of a stochastic model, this paper uses an asymptotic expansion to estimate the moments of the integrated stochastic process over time. Mention is made of a family of related asymptotic expansions that could be of wider interest.

Description: This paper incorporates a jump-diffusion process into the original Lee-Carter model, and uses it to forecast mortality rates and analyze mortality securitization.

Description: In Canada, there are three main sources of government-provided retirement income: 1. The Canada/Quebec Pension Plan [C/QPP], which have benefits and contributions based on earnings up to the Yearly Maximum Pensionable Earnings, 2. Old Age Security [OAS], which is a fixed amount for most but does include a 'clawback' of benefits for high-income individuals, and 3. The Guaranteed Income Supplement [GIS], which is designed to supplement those with extremely low income. The annual GIS benefit is reduced, or clawed back, by 50 cents for every dollar of annual income the person has in retirement, including C/QPP and income from Registered Retirement Savings Plans [RRSP] and other savings. OAS benefits are not included in determining the GIS clawback. The result of this is that low-income individuals who attempt to enhance their retirement replacement ratio actually see a decrease in government-provided support the more they save for retirement. In fact, savings in an RRSP can effectively be taxed at more than 100% through corresponding reductions in the GIS, social housing, home care, GAINS [Ontario's Guaranteed Annual Income Supplement], and other benefits which are based on one's personal retirement income. This paper explores a basic GIS exemption, a GIS clawback rate of lower than 50%, and various combinations of the two as alternative policies for the GIS. The goal is to improve the fairness of the GIS and reduce the disincentive to save for retirement, without increasing the overall cost of the program significantly.

Description: This paper uses the possibility distribution approach, or fuzzy logic, to estimate the insurance loss amount. A special class of parametric possibility distributions is used to model insurance loss variables. The parameters of the possibility distribution are estimated by combining statistical analysis of sample data and domain knowledge provided by actuarial experts. Insurance premiums are calculated using possibilistic mean and possibilistic variation. Estimation of possibility distribution of aggregate loss amount is also discussed.

Description: When fitting a model to any data, there is some uncertainty about which model is best. Green [1995] quantifies this uncertainty through the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo [RJMCMC] method. When using the RJMCMC method in a regime-switching situation, the chain determines the optimal number of regimes by jumping between various possibilities. This method gives each model its posterior probability of being the best. After an overview of the methodology, the authors apply it to various datasets and discuss the applications in modern actuarial science.

Description: This paper addresses the fuzziness in regression models. The goal is to present a test procedure to explicitly examine whether an independent variable has a clear functional relationship with the dependent variable in a specific regression model, or whether their relationship is fuzzy. To this end, the authors interpret the spread of the regression coefficients as a statistic measuring the fuzziness of the relationship between the corresponding independent variable and the dependent variable. They then derive test distributions based on the null hypothesis that such spreads could have been obtained with data generated by a classical regression model with random errors. The analysis is presented in conceptual rather than technical terms.