Description: Scenario analysis and stress tests based on consideration of shock events and their possible repercussions can provide useful information to management and regulators on a company’s resiliency through a chain of events, as well as support the consideration of a firm’s operations as an integral part of a wider financial system. We discuss how scenario analysis and stress testing can be used to define a company’s risk appetite, which is at the core of a well-embedded ERM framework. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: This paper examines the discrepancy that seems to exist between classical financial theory and the widely adopted portfolio selection theory, and proposes that the roles of agents and the interests of corporate insiders need also to be considered. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: This paper takes the position that it is possible to compute annual pension costs without computing liabilities first, or at all, even implicitly. Moreover, such an approach can be shown to have powerful advantages in stochastic financial environments. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: This paper attempts a model for a mix of DB and DC retirement plans that meets the dual objectives of predictability of employer cash contributions, and sufficient employee retirement benefit. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: We propose asymptotically correct two-sided bounds for random sums where the number of summands has an arbitrary distribution which can be viewed as ruin probabilities or accumulated claim sizes in various risk processes. The bounds are fairly new and they reveal the real accuracy of some well-known and widely used asymptotic formulas. It turns out that this accuracy can be poor and the range where these formulas give appropriate approximations depends on the shape of the tail distribution of the summands. This dependence is examined in the research.

Description: Discussion of the US Social security system from the perspective of Asset Liability management theory. From Asset-Liability Integration, M-FI02-1.

Description: This paper takes the position that a retirement plan should not be evaluated differently than other financial arrangements, and, therefore, its value should be measured through a utility function. The paper then suggests a method of incorporating utility theory into the retirement plan design model. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: This paper introduces a re-rating formula which calculates proposed rates directly by means of fully developed and trended loss costs and current class differentials. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: This paper examines the fundamental principles underlying the theory of rate change. The proposed approach shows improved accuracy as compared to current methods, with particular significance for a non-static book of business.

Description: Property and casualty insurers face risks in many key areas, such as operations, natural catastrophes and underwriting. Among the underwriting risks is the potential financial impact of adverse loss reserves development.This paper illustrates a model of loss reserve risk that will incorporate how risk evolves over time at annual time horizons.