Description: This article examines how parameter uncertainty leads to uncertainty in Value at Risk VaR estimates. Lacking a closed form solution, we use a first order approximation of VaR to map parameter changes into changes in the VaR value. When the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates is normal, this implies a normal approximation of the confidence interval about VaR. We describe this approximation in detail and explore some extensions to risk factor modeling.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification

Description: Investment Fallacies: Future Equity Returns

Description: The author summarizes the content of a seminar entitled “Integrated Approaches to Risk Management in the Financial Services Industry,” including a description of the papers presented.

Description: The article discusses C1 risks in five areas: 1 the economics of risk, 2 portfolio optimization, 3 policy, 4 risk interaction and 5 institutional aspects of C1 risk.

Description: Read the February 2017 issue of Risks and Rewards published by the Investment Section.

Description: Under non-Aristotelian logic, there are multiple values, or shades of gray. Indeed, there may even be unexpected results from logical combinations, like “both” and “neither.” This article discusses how this insight should be applied to the current debate between formula-driven reserves with limited assumption flexibility and the reserve principles approach. For reserve standards, we do need both actuarial judgment grounded in reserving principles and restrictive formula methods or safe harbors.

Description: This paper discusses the binominal financial and insurance models. In addition, the paper expands the discussion to the martingale probabilities measures for insurances, annuities, endowment insurances, and equity-linked products.

Description: This article analyzes the events leading to low interest rates and recommends careful asset/liability management and risk analysis to address future challenges with interest rates.

Description: This article deals with enterprise risk management and how the techniques contained within the discipline can help prevent unforeseen large mistakes in strategy, product design, and product management