Description: "A crucial importance in forecasting is to be able to distinguish cases when temporary slowdowns in health care utilization are followed by a “rebound” period of higher utilization. Come explore an analysis of a new mathematical model describing the return-of-care process. By means of simulation and case studies using the R programming language, the relationship between the visibility of these effects and the endogenous variance of the utilization time series is explored. After attending this session, you will be able to: Describe the parameters and mathematical form of the model Apply the model to real-world utilization data"

Description: It goes without saying that the analysis of data is a key aspect of actuarial practice, but do traditional actuarial approaches allow us to see the whole picture? Effective data analysis is also key to the identification of health disparities and measuring progress on health equity. Actuaries and others analyzing data for health equity purposes find themselves looking at data differently.

Description: This session will discuss essential theories and practical applications of deep learning for actuaries. Participants will gain insights on leveraging these cutting-edge techniques to enhance actuarial models and drive predictive accuracy.

Description: Asset liability management is an important task for any insurer, where tools like Excel play an important role from an analytics perspective. Dashboard tools like Power Bi and Tableau can supercharge an organization’s ability to perform ALM with real-time precision and monitoring of risk/imbalances. The dashboard can provide insights into potential risks posed by asset allocation and concentration, allowing for informed decision-making to mitigate those risks. The presenters will walk the audience through an example of ALM use case, including how to build key performance indicators such as cash flow, asset allocation, and risk exposure. Additionally, we will demonstrate how these types of dashboards can be customized to fit the specific needs of your organization.

Description: Artificial intelligence (AI) models have become increasingly popular in various industries, including finance. Such models can help lenders assess the risk of loan applicants, identify potential defaults and make better decisions about granting credit. However, the complexity of many machine-learning and, particularly, deep-learning models makes it difficult to understand how they arrive at their decisions. This lack of interpretability can be a significant problem in the legal and ethical realms, as it hinders transparency and accountability. Join us to learn interpretability techniques that are essential to address the challenges of using complex AI models in credit risk modeling. These techniques aim to provide a better understanding of how an AI model arrived at a particular decision or prediction. Techniques include surrogate models, which aim to provide a simpler model that approximates the behavior of the original model, and decision trees, which show the decision-making process in a more transparent way. However, applying interpretability techniques to AI models can be a challenging task. For example, some techniques can reduce the performance of the model, which can be unacceptable in applications where high accuracy is critical. Additionally, some techniques may only be effective for certain types of models or datasets, which limits their applicability. Despite these challenges, interpretability techniques are becoming increasingly important in the field of credit risk modeling. Financial regulators have recognized the importance of interpretability, and are starting to require financial institutions to use models that can be explained and validated. In addition, interpretability techniques can be used to improve the performance of credit risk models. By understanding how a model makes decisions, it is possible to identify areas where the model can be improved or where additional data may be needed.

Description: Pandemics are a main driver of losses for both life and non-life (re-)insurance. Until COVID-19, risk assessment mostly relied on a few historic examples, most importantly the Spanish flu. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that other pathogens (namely the coronaviruses) need to be taken into account. Also, modern societies and governments drastically respond to novel threats and implement measures such as social distancing, mask mandates, and lockdowns. Besides the properties of the pathogen itself, these reactions and the medical progression (namely the development of vaccines) are key influences on the course of a pandemic, and thus also the resulting outcomes. To account for the new insights, join us as we take a look at a stochastic, age-structured compartmental model that is calibrated on recent pandemics with several parameters sets to model different levels of reaction speed and stringency between groups of countries. Other important factors also must be defined in close collaboration with experts. Get ready to explore the development of a model and framework that can provide potential outcomes to be used as the basis to derive both summary and tail statistics to assess pandemic risk and help price complex deals.

Description: The session begins with a brief introduction to Gen AI, including “what it is” and how to optimize outputs. Then, we will to provide some insight into what we are seeing within the Actuarial space – this would include the extent to which actuaries are using Gen AI on a day-to-day basis, how they are going about using it, and some predictions as to where this will go.

Description: Session 1F: The Math Behind The Machine - A Review of First Principles

Description: Attend if you are an organization interested in utilizing various kinds of client data to improve the whole insurance sales process, and to develop new applications. Interested parties may include distribution sales force, underwriting, claims, actuarial and finance departments within a typical insurance company, online distribution partners, health care providers and other consulting service providers. The research looks into various use cases, which are typically main issues in modeling in the insurance industry. The research also helps benchmark performance using different languages that may serve as a good reference when best to use a certain language to enhance the development cycle.

Description: Explore SOA-sponsored research on Social Determinants of Health (SDOH) during the How Does Where You Live Impact Your Health webcast. Dive into SDOH data and modeling that will focus on cluster analysis. This will help determine the overall impact of your area's affect on your health and life. This webcast also covers an overview of the existing SDOH-related programs that may affect or intersect with health plan or provider SDOH initiatives. Discover the importance of the place you live and future impact of your overall health.