Description: Similar to how states had made adjustments to their capitation rates to reflect acuity adjustments caused by the onset of the pandemic, states will need to modify the rates to reflect the unwinding since utilization patterns and average acuity per enrolled member will change. When the continuous coverage requirements set forth by the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) ended, Medicaid-managed care programs across the country adopted various approaches to phasing out maintenance of effort (MOE) as a result of changes to the PHE-era continuous eligibility requirements. Phasing out the MOE requirement will ultimately result in members who no longer meet eligibility requirements losing their Medicaid coverage. Further, states are facing a wide variety of circumstances and are implementing diverse approaches to the MOE phase-out. This topic will be of significant interest to all actuaries and stakeholders of the capitation rate development process for Medicaid-managed care programs. Join us as we discuss the operationalization of the PHE unwind while referencing the SOA's research project which models the effects of the unwinding on Medicaid eligibility and population costs. You will learn about the various approaches that different states have adopted to manage the unwinding process, which will be instrumental for accurately pricing managed care rates.

Description: One of the most effective ways to convey quantitative results is via data visualization. However, many times actuaries have been ineffective in doing this. In this session, you will see a demonstration of certain dataviz choices that make communicating results more effective in terms of graph type choice, graph element styles, colors and more. All examples will be in Excel-and doesn't require Visual Basic for Applications (VBA)! Nothing too fancy! I want to distribute working files to attendees before the session so they can follow along with how to build the graphs, make changes, etc. Graph choices will include line graph, tile grid map and jitter graph.

Description: Attend if you are an organization interested in utilizing various kinds of client data to improve the whole insurance sales process, and to develop new applications. Interested parties may include distribution sales force, underwriting, claims, actuarial and finance departments within a typical insurance company, online distribution partners, health care providers and other consulting service providers. The research looks into various use cases, which are typically main issues in modeling in the insurance industry. The research also helps benchmark performance using different languages that may serve as a good reference when best to use a certain language to enhance the development cycle.

Description: ALM and hedging can reap significant benefits from innovation in computation and operations research. Explore applications of static and dynamic optimization in two different ALM and hedging use cases. Insurers are increasingly moving offshore by establishing Bermuda captive reinsurers. In calculating the Bermuda Best Estimate Liability ('BEL'), reinsurers will need to segment assets to support liabilities in each treaty. A Linear Programming ('LP') problem can be formulated to tactically select assets in a way that minimizes the BEL and consequently the total asset requirement. Learn more about what US Variable Annuity Insurers face with the regulatory requirement to reflect 'future hedging strategy' in their statutory funding calculation. The traditional numerical method of finding the optimal hedging target and then allocating assets may encounter the curse of dimensionality with expanding product and economic environment complexity. A Reinforcement Learning algorithm may well fit this problem and provide insurers a solution for dynamic hedging.

Description: Session 1F: The Math Behind The Machine - A Review of First Principles

Description: How well can we predict ACA HHS Risk Adjustment Data Validation (HRADV) results? Put another way, how susceptible is the current HRADV process to small sample volatility? What potential remedies are there to the current model's shortcomings? Every plan, regardless of how many members they have above the 1000 minimum, count equally if they qualify for an HRADV with how the result is interpreted, and the subsequent HRADV risk transfer ($330M in 2023).

Description: Sarah Rockhill, MPH, Geospatial Epidemiologist at CDC will discuss the latest in the Public Health 3.0 model in which leaders serve as Chief Health Strategists, partnering across multiple sectors and leveraging data and resources to address social, environmental, and economic conditions that affect health and health equity.

Description: With the unprecedented proliferation in the size and complexity of data over the past decade, actuaries have invested considerable time and energy in the development of new skills and expertise in order to be able to understand and use “big data” to its fullest potential in the development of actuarial work product.

Description: Modeling Approaches and Challenges focuses on approaches to real world simulation and the challenges and considerations in real world simulation. Topics include: A frequency domain approach to build realistic multi-horizon scenarios. (Ortec approach) Cascade models structure linking models for major asset classes and economic variables. (Moody’s approach) Overview of models, calibrations & approaches within the context of different use cases. Deterministic & stochastic approaches. Importance of model re-calibration flexibility. We will also discuss specific insights into considerations and challenges in real world simulation, which include topics like: Setting capital market assumptions and/or calibration targets. Assumptions about correlation and causality. Calibrating the model to capital markets assumptions. Validating the model against capital market assumptions. Role of history, market data and stylized facts. Importance of back testing. Calibrating the model to multiple investment horizons. Inclusion of alterative asset classes such as private equity, infrastructure, and direct real estate. Associated issues of limited data, illiquidity and greater uncertainty about calibration targets.

Description: This session will explore governance considerations for insurance carriers leveraging machine learning models. During the session, panelists will share insights on the evolving predictive model and AI regulatory landscape, as well as techniques for developing or enhancing AI governance frameworks that comply with emerging regulatory guidance.