Description: This article proposes a framework for estimating mortality improvement models and analyzing the parameter uncertainty in such models.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: This article describes the use of artificial society modeling to gauge the effect of insurance agent population and effectiveness on individual life insurance sales. This is part of an ongoing effort to extend the use of one type of agent-based modeling beyond health care, but is far from a practical application at this point.

Description: This article describes some of the drawbacks to the assessment of longevity risk adopted by most practitioners within the UK together with an initiative that provides a platform for an alternative approach that is both (a) more forward-looking in nature and (b) can complement current practices.

Description: The article describes the key components of actuarial model, leading practices in designing them, and characteristics of well-built models.

Description: The article gives a brief history of the development of the Delphi method, and describes the use of the Delphi method in studies by the Society of Actuaries over the past 25 years.

Description: Description of the vast variety of predictive analytics topics covered by the Forecasting & Futurism section and introduction to the July 2015 issue of the newsletter.

Description: Provides details of the 2nd forecasting competition for the best model that predicts the Civilian Unemployment Rate 'UNRATE', measured on a monthly basis, from March-end 2012 through September-end 2012.

Description: In this article, we are going to discuss the AR model by making connections to time-dependent ordinary differential equations.

Description: As providers are considering accountable and value based care models, it is critical to strategically think through how to achieve a sustainable business model into the future. This requires actuarial and clinical/provider capabilities to assess the care management and financial levers to help a client through the transition.