Description: In this paper, we propose measures of the risk that the value of the liabilities becomes larger than the value of the assets, and this especially for insurance companies. We study probabilities of mismatching and a degree of mismatching in unsegmented and multidimensional models of the balance, in which we stress the influence of interest rates on the active and passive side of the balance.

Description: In this presentation, we will delve into the realm of structured finance, placing a spotlight on advanced structured finance modeling. This session will first explore the growth of structured assets in the insurance space, and the reasons behind this growth. We will then conduct a deep dive into different credit models underlying the cashflow projections of different types of structured securities, including an overview of approaches for modeling the prepayment rates, default rates, and loss severity. We will also explore how a refined credit model can help insurance companies evaluate the risk-return tradeoff of investing in different structured assets. This session aims to enhance understanding of structured finance products and how to model them.

Description: This is the disclaimer for the Economic Scenario Generators tool available from the SOA / AAA on the SOA Website.

Description: Hear AM Best rating analysts discuss the rating process and the best capital adequacy ratio (BCAR), a quantitative foundation for AM Best’s assessment of carriers’ financial strength. The benchmarking of BCAR scores for various company types (national MCOs, BCBS plans, smaller regional plans) will be discussed. Look at how changes in investment and underwriting environment impacted the results over the past several years. Further, AM Best’s view of the quality of capital and various factors impacting the overall assessment of the balance sheet strength will be discussed.

Description: Modeling Approaches and Challenges focuses on approaches to real world simulation and the challenges and considerations in real world simulation. Topics include: A frequency domain approach to build realistic multi-horizon scenarios. (Ortec approach) Cascade models structure linking models for major asset classes and economic variables. (Moody’s approach) Overview of models, calibrations & approaches within the context of different use cases. Deterministic & stochastic approaches. Importance of model re-calibration flexibility. We will also discuss specific insights into considerations and challenges in real world simulation, which include topics like: Setting capital market assumptions and/or calibration targets. Assumptions about correlation and causality. Calibrating the model to capital markets assumptions. Validating the model against capital market assumptions. Role of history, market data and stylized facts. Importance of back testing. Calibrating the model to multiple investment horizons. Inclusion of alterative asset classes such as private equity, infrastructure, and direct real estate. Associated issues of limited data, illiquidity and greater uncertainty about calibration targets.

Description: This paper explores areas where fuzzy logic models may be applied to improve risk assessment and risk decision-making. It discusses the methodology, framework and process of using fuzzy logic systems for risk management. With the help of practical examples, it is hoped that it will encourage wise application of fuzzy logic models to risk modeling.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. In this paper, a multivariate quasi-negative binomial distribution is proposed to model frequency dependence among different risk types. The operational risk diversification effect is illustrated through frequency dependency modeled by the bivariate quasi-negative binomial distribution under a framework of Monte Carlo simulation.

Description: The COVID-19 pandemic has been an acute reminder of the material impacts that pandemics can have on Life (re)insurance and society at large. Learn to describe the journey of a Life reinsurance practitioner to model and operationalize pandemic and infectious disease risk, why this is of importance to actuaries, and their risk management. It will consider how such models have been used, developments over time, and challenges in using and calibrating these models. The session will also provide perspectives from a pandemic model provider who will describe the fundamental metrics for pandemic loss distributions and how learnings from the COVID-19 pandemic can be used to quantify the potential impact of the next pandemic. Finally, dive into an outline of how biological principles can be applied to anticipating plausible pathogens causing the next pandemic.

Description: Amid the growing adoption of AI/ML models for underwriting and pricing, Life and Annuity carriers are facing increasing regulation in North America on Model Risk Management (MRM) and the use of AI. Colorado has set a precedent in the US by requiring reporting in June 2024, with other states looking to follow suit. To ensure compliance, Chief Risk Officers and Heads of MRM, working with their business partners, will need to evolve their MRM and AI risk frameworks, enhance model validation capabilities, and strengthen governance. This session will present: - Key trends and challenges faced by carriers amid increasing model landscape complexity and regulatory expectations - Regulatory outlook and implications for carriers' MRM and AI risk programs - An approach to enhance MRM and AI risk frameworks, including specific model validation program updates to address the unique risks of AI/ML models - Opportunities to enhance both MRM validation effectiveness and efficiency through the adoption of more risk-based approaches, smart sourcing, and automation - Case studies of how leading carriers are evolving their MRM and AI risk programs Upon attending the session, the attendees will develop a good understanding of increasing regulatory expectations, the required MRM and AI risk framework enhancements, and approaches to design and execute an effective MRM validation program in a cost-efficient manner.