Individual Life Experience Committee Mortality Prediction and Presentation Contest

SOA Individual Life Experience Committee 2021 Mortality Forecasting Contest Results

We are happy to announce that we have 3 winners for the SOA Individual Life Experience Committee 2021 Mortality Forecasting Contest. The competition provided for one first place entry and two second place entries. The winners are as follows:

First Place

Nhan Huynh
Mike Ludkovski
James Risk

Second Place

1. Zach Stenberg, ASA, MAAA
2. Shuxian Ning
    Shuyu Zhu

 

Summary of judges decisions 

Winning submission methodology

Winning submission program

 

 

The Individual Life Experience Committee is pleased to announce a competition inviting contestants to estimate future industry-level mortality experience for life insurance companies based on prior industry experience. In particular we are asking contestants to estimate the 2017 industry mortality experience, based on the most currently released 2009 – 2016 data set. An important part of this competition is also for contestants to explain their approach and results. The full rules for the competition, as well as the competition data, are available below. Please be sure to read the rules carefully and confirm your eligibility before deciding whether or not to enter.

Clarification

The formula in Section 7 (Judging) of the detailed contest rules includes the term Ei, the predicted death claim amount. For avoidance of doubt, Ei will be calculated as the product of the predicted mortality rate submitted by the contestant for a record, and the 2017 actual observed amount exposed for that same record. Contestants should not submit their predictions of what the 2017 exposed amounts will be.

Materials

Detailed Contest Rules 

2009 – 2016 ILEC Data Set 

Mortality prediction feature grid for submitting mortality rates