Description: Health care predictive analytics varies between payers and providers as well as being a powerful tool in business decision modeling.

Description: This is a final report to help individual health plans evaluate and manage their potential exposure during a specific pandemic. It examines the potential impact of pandemic influenza on different payers in the U.S. health care system.

Description: An essay suggesting a health care financing system.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper addresses the question of how socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, health status and health behaviors are associated with oldest-old mortality and survivorship among people who have survived to old age. Data comes from the 1990-91 National Health Interview Survey’s Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Supplement and the mortality follow-up through 2002. The results indicate that activity limitation and exercise status, in combination with education, play an important role in survival into ages between 65 and 85, but have a smaller effect on survival among the oldest-old population of 85+.

Description: This article discusses the history of the Sun Life of Canada inserting a question about smoking in their life insurance applications. Actuary John M. Bragg used the Sun Life mortality ratios, supplemented by other data from life companies, from the Cancer Society, and from the U.S. Surgeon General, to construct his non-smoker and smoker mortality tables and to produce his Health Insurance Report which was the starting point for companies that have introduced smoker/nonsmoker differentials for health insurance.

Description: This is a sequel to Panjer's paper. The Walter Reeed Staging Method - WRSM - is a method that groups patients infected with HIV into various stages. This paper looks at mathematically modeling the transition process of HIV by using the WRSM. This paper argues that Panjer's results are biased and understates the average time it will take an HIV life to develop AIDS.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium January 2002. This paper evaluates age and sex specific patterns of change in underlying and multiple cause of death reports for the period 1980-1998 for 14 leading causes of death at ages 65 and older. Changes in four types of mortality measures will be analyzed: 1 underlying cause death rates 2 multiple cause death rates 3 associated cause death rates and 4 death rates based on the joint occurrences of multiple cause conditions. Implications of the results are discussed in the context of existing models for analyzing and forecasting future mortality patterns in the U.S.

Description: This Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key features of the COVID-19 epidemic and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work.

Description: The SOA Research Institute Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program released a report that explores the shifting geography of Lyme Disease in the U.S. and beyond and some of the potential determinants of its spread. Lyme Disease is a well-known disease particularly in the eastern U.S., and it is also prevalent in other geographies. This report researches the complex relationship between climate variables and the spread of Lyme Disease in the United States.

Description: This article summarizes the 1967 Surgeon General’s report on the health consequences of smoking.