Description: In December 2007, Goldman Sachs launched a product called QxX index swap, which is designed to allow market participants to hedge or gain exposure to longevity and mortality risks. This presentation offers a quantitative analysis of this brand new financial innovation. First of all, the presentation sets up a risk-neutral framework to price QxX index swaps. This framework, which is based on the dynamics of death rates under a two-factor stochastic mortality model in a risk-adjusted probability measure, yields prices [spreads] that are fairly close to the spreads that Goldman Sachs currently offers. The presentation then explores the uncertainty involved in this model-based pricing framework. Specifically, it studies parameter risk by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo [MCMC] and model risk by examining structural changes in mortality dynamics. The results indicate that both model risk and parameter risk are significant. Actuaries should therefore be aware of these issues when placing a value on a longevity index swap.

Description: This presentation illustrates a calibration model against 60 years of historical data using a pragmatic mixture of filtering, maximum likelihood and method of moments techniques, and compare the resulting model with interest rates in contemporary economic scenario generators.

Description: This is a poster presentation about a study to evaluate various methods for projecting health benefit populations.

Description: An increased focus on pension plan cost and risk management has led plan sponsors to pursue innovative plan designs. This, in turn, is driving the need for actuaries to utilize new approaches to modeling the underlying market risks of such plan designs. The presenters will discuss advanced techniques to pension plan cash flow modeling that will ensure that the risks embedded in complex plan design features are fully captured. Specifically, a new dimension to cash flow modeling, benefit commencement year (in addition to payment year), will be introduced as well as the concept of 'collapsible' cash flow. Case studies will illustrate how techniques can be used in practice for cash balance plans, pension equity plans and other lump sum paying plans. Other risks such as form of payment and longevity will also be covered. This session is intended to meet the needs of actuaries and investment consultants focused on providing advice on risk management and investment strategy to sponsors of pension plans with complex design features.

Description: As of 2019, most companies have defined a model steward role. However, this role is defined differently across the industry and the people in this role face a variety of challenges. The expert panel will share background, war stories and best practices from their years of experience in the role.

Description: The speakers will discuss the replication of long-term options, including a discussion of issues such as liquidity, transaction costs, slippage, impact of policyholder behavior, and machine learning algorithms to improve hedge effectiveness.

Description: The speaker will discuss the training of neural networks to compute future Greeks of liabilities (or options) without the use of nested stochastics.

Description: The hybrid Life/LTC and Life / Chronic Illness market is an exciting market that is in its relative infancy. There are many new companies that have just entered, or are considering entering, the hybrid market. Hybrid sales have grown tremendously over the past decade and are still going strong, with annual premium revenue estimated to be above $4 billion per year. The young issue ages for these products, relative to when LTC benefits are paid, means that the claim experience in the industry for these products is still very limited. Additionally, there are many moving parts to these products that present correlated risks and assumptions. The new entrants to the market, limited experience, and the interactions of risks create an environment equipped for vibrant discussions on the product structure, risks, assumptions, and considerations for modeling these hybrid products. The presenters would provide insight into each of these topics through a conceptual discussion, supported by observational data from case study projections and sensitivities.

Description: In recent years, the domestic insurance brokerage channel has witnessed significant breakthroughs. As a company with multi-channel development strategy, Aviva-Cofco Life also faces the challenge of channel conflicts in the rapid growth of both individual and brokerage channels. The presenter will share Aviva-Cofco's experiences, lessons learnt, gains and losses in product development in response to channel conflict, and introduce some of the practices of foreign markets for reference.

Description: This session will discuss the implication of PBR on various actuarial models used within an organization such as pricing, valuation, and projections. The session will discuss some of the challenges faced when it comes to implementing the requirements stipulated by PBR. The session will also share some of the lessons learns from work done by various companies so far. The session will also provide an update on ongoing activities related to simplified VM20 research project.