Description: Presenters will address optimal new business written premium mix at the firm and state levels under varying competitive conditions. They will explore the use of mean-variance optimization to determine a company's optimal new business written premium mix for a given geographical area, predicting statewide product mixes using varying rate regulation scenarios, involving profit caps and measuring/testing a market's competitiveness for a given line of business. The scope of the ideas to be presented is international, applying to property, liability, individual and group life; individual and group health; disability and accidental insurance. Examples will be presented for general insurance in the United States

Description: The presenters will explore the current state of the North American mortality baseline and long-term improvement assumptions and determine what we can learn from the UK's approach. They will share research done by the Society of Actuaries and other organizations to describe how to build a better model, plus show the impact socio-economics and other factors have on longevity expectations. The presenters will offer suggestions for how U.S. and Canadian pension plan and insurance actuaries--and the industry itself--can best use this research to develop a better model for the risk management of pension plans and group annuities

Description: There are two main equity release plans for retirement financing: reverse mortgage plan and home reversion plan. Both plans entitle the home owners to release cash from their properties without leaving their home. In the lease buyback scheme (LBS) recently introduced rin Singapore, the home owner sells the tail-end of the property lease to the government in exchange for a cash payment upfront. Unlike the two main equity release plans, the LBS only allows the owner to stay in the property during the front part of the lease but not for life. In this paper, we propose a hybrid home equity release plan that incorporates both features of the home reversion plan and the LBS. We provide an actuarial framework to analyse the pricing of the hybrid plan. Some numerical illustrations are presented to show the actuarial values of the plan under different parameter choices, such as lease period and portion of property values sold. The hybrid plan provides enhanced flexibility to plan takers to meet their retirement needs.

Description: With the rapid development of the Insurance market, insurance technology—including online insurance--continues to mature. Zhongan Online invests heavily in fintechand Zhongan Answer, an insurance robo-advisor, launched in 2018, could improve transaction efficiency by using artificial intelligence to communicate in a timely manner and solve the pain point of the perplexed insurance clause. Under a different consumption scenario, Zhongan Answer could reply to users in a timely manner, while also implementing private customized products and services by providing users with personal risk management and insurance assessment solutions so that users could easily and conveniently select the most suitable insurance plan. The intelligent shopping guide system of Zhongan Answer could improve transaction efficiency by analyzing the personal insurance intention and providing the humanized interpretation of insurance clause. Zhongan Answer has served millions of users and supported more than 100,000 insurance-related knowledge points with an accuracy rate over 90%. Zhongan Answer has provided more than four million Q&A services, and its intelligent shopping guide system covers more than 90% of insurance products.

Description: As China’s population officially ages, the government has now escalated reform of China's social security system to a national strategic level. The report of the 19th National Congress further mentioned construction of an old-age security system and social environment, painting a bright future for development of the pension industry. At the moment, development of China's pension industry is beginning a new journey. Learn about the current status and future development of pillar 2 pension, which is core to China's pension system; framework and operation management overview of Enterprise Annuity and Occupational Annuity; possible evolution paths in contribution payment methods’ investment operation models, and development of professional pension managers.

Description: An overview of the evolution of equity-based guarantees (e.g. VA, FIA, etc.) over the last few years and discussion the current lay of the land as it relates to the regulatory, issues, capital markets environment in which these products are offered.

Description: You’ve built or updated a predictive model. Is it any good? How can you interpret and understand its predictions? How does it compare to alternative models? This session will look at traditional and non-traditional ways of validating predictive models, with examples from case studies.

Description: This session will explore the various methods of determining the credibility levels that are given to various size employer groups and Medicare plans. The background and theory of the methods that have commonly been used will be explained and then some new data-driven research in the area and possible alternatives will be discussed.

Description: The presenters explain the current state of model risk management in the insurance industry and shares insight on some of the best practices and common themed challenges. They also explore where model risk management is headed going forward and what a more optimal framework would look like.

Description: Actuaries use data, math, intuition, and domain expertise to make decisions under uncertainty. Bayesian models formalize the techniques many of us use every day. While many Bayesian models are impossible to solve analytically, new tools allow us to create rich Bayesian models and use computers to evaluate them quickly. In this session we will build several Bayesian models using Python and pymc3, a probabilistic programming language, to demonstrate Bayesian techniques that can be applied to actuarial work.